Quote:
Originally Posted by fhomess
Ok, since I'm the type of person who's happy to give a quick pass at some statistics, I went to Retrosheet and downloaded the game logs for the past 10 seasons (2001-2010).
Code:
Year AWins HWins HFA xAWins xHWins xHFA Diff
2010 1072 1358 .559 104 116 .527 -.032
2009 1097 1333 .549 89 106 .544 -.005
2008 1077 1351 .556 100 108 .519 -.037
2007 1113 1318 .542 103 117 .532 -.010
2006 1102 1327 .546 80 105 .568 .021
2005 1124 1306 .537 85 97 .533 -.004
2004 1129 1299 .535 103 115 .528 -.007
2003 1094 1335 .550 89 108 .548 -.001
2002 1111 1314 .542 85 115 .575 .033
2001 1155 1273 .524 101 94 .482 -.042
Tot 5461 6687 .550 476 552 .537 -.013
x-Columns denote extra inning games |
Fhomess - thank you very much for summarizing these games. I think this is pretty convincing that batting last isn't necessarily an advantage. By the way, your totals are only for 2006-2010, but the 2001-2010 percentages are very similar, so no big deal.
Henry - it looks like you may have finally found the error or your ways, but I will add this. I think the flaw in all of your thoughts throughout the thread was that you always talked about a tied or close game in the bottom of the 9th. If it's tied in the bottom of the 9th, of course at that particular point in the game they have an advantage because the visitors already used their 9th inning at bat. But if it's tied GOING INTO the 9th, that's a different story.
And with Fhomess's data, I would tend to conclude batting last is a disadvantage (very small of course, but clearly not an advantage).