Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wolf
Thinking about it, I can see some value changes in events in the bottom of the ninth.
If the batting team is down by a number of runs, a leadoff walk is almost as good as anything else.
If the game is tied with a runner on second, then a single can be just as good as a double, triple or home run.
If the game is tied with a runner on third, then a fly ball can be just as good as a single, double, triple or home run.
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Exactly. As the "on base-vs-out" situation develops, the manager actually gets more flexibility to get the run. The examples you pointed out above are good samples. It's most likely going to be an advantage mostly in close games of course.
I was thinking too, of another way to present this idea...
If the visitors were playing in Park A and the home team in Park B against a 9 inning defensive team - and they each played 9 offensive innings only not knowing what the other team was doing... at the end of the games, each would compare scores.
Lets say the visiting team scores 6 runs and the home team scored 5. Had the teams actually played each other and experienced the bottom of the 9th, I have to believe the advantages we're talking about here would change the outcome of the game more often than not - simply because the home team now knows exactly what it has to do to win.