Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wolf
Henry, if both teams get until 27 outs (again, yes, the home club may only need 24) to score runs, and if the team that scores more runs in those outs than the other one does wins, then where is the advantage in batting first or last? When a team bats last, the other team has already HAD their inning.
Either I'm missing something or this is a very simple situation.
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Agreed - that on the surface it appears each team has the same opportunity - thus no advantage. Statfreak more-or-less explains the way I see it...
The ONLY time in the entire game that the specific amount of effort to win the game is known is in the bottom of the 9th or following innings - and the Home team is the only one that has its offense in play during that time. As a visiting team, you never know if what you just did (scored 1 or 20 runs) is enough - but as the Home team you know exactly what will end the game immediately.
In football, they not only trade the sudden death advantage, but they know what it takes to win the game and are in control of it at the time. In baseball, only the Home team has that option and only in their half of the final inning.
In that final inning, as the offensive scenario develops, the home team manager knows exactly what effort is needed to get the winning run across the plate and can fine-tune his complete repertoire to accomplish that specific challenge.
I personally believe that the .540 historical home team advantage is mostly due to that fact.