2087 NLCS Preview: Pittsburgh VS. San Diego
Pittsburgh Pirates(94-68)
VS.
San Diego Padres(97-65)
Quick Facts:
- This will be the 18th overall postseason meeting between Pittsburgh and San Diego and the 14th NLCS meeting. The Pirates have won 14 of the previous 17 matchups, including the most recent- a 7 game victory in the 2083 Divisional Round. The Padres' only playoff victories over Pittsburgh were in the NLCS in 2030 and 2073, and in the Divisional Round in 2082. San Diego wound up winning the World Series in both 2030 and 2073, but lost the World Series in 2082.
- San Diego dominated the regular season series with Pittsburgh this year. The Padres won 12 out of 16 games, with an average score of 4.8 to 3.3. San Diego reached double digits in runs scored twice, in blowout wins of 18-2 and 10-3. Pittsburgh's high was 8 runs scored. The Pirates did, however, produce 2 shutouts(wins of 5-0 and 8-0), while the Padres had none. There were 5 1-run games, and San Diego won them all. There were 3 extra-inning games, and the Padres won all of them(a 2-1 14-inning game, a 3-2 12-inning game, and a 3-1 10-inning game).
Thoughts:
The last time that Pittsburgh and San Diego met in the NLCS was in 2073. Coincidentally, this year's ALCS participants(Denver and Miami) also met in the ALCS that year. Here, however, we will focus solely on the Pirates and Padres.
As dominant as Pittsburgh has been over the year, the early 70's was the most frustrating time period in franchise history. After winning 3 straight World Series titles from 2057 to 2059, the Pirates had only 2 appearances(2060 and 2063)- both losses- since. In '73, they led all of baseball with 104 wins and knocked off a 92-win San Jose team in the Divisional Round. The only player remaining from that team is reliever
Joe O'Donoghue. Back then, he was a 25-year old who had enjoyed an impressive rookie season(54 games, 2.85 ERA, 53 strikeouts, 11 walks). Now, he's a 39-year old who has been reduced to mop-up duties(33 games, 8.55 ERA, 46 strikeouts, 14 walks).
San Diego, meanwhile, hadn't won a championship since 2030 and hadn't made the playoffs since 2057. The Padres had spent the late 50's, 60's, and early 70's hovering between mediocrity and respectability, but had only 2 winning seasons from 2062 to 2072. In the latter year, San Diego had completely imploded and had a franchise-worst 55-107 record. The Padres' response to that disaster of a season was spend, spend, and spend some more. In the offseason prior to the '73 season, San Diego doled out over $40 million in free agent contracts. It wasn't the worst strategy to employ. Those free agents included SS
Andrew Burdick(1.149 OPS, 38 HR, 93 RBI), C
Timmy Rachal(.740 OPS, 13 HR, 50 RBI), SP
Alvaro Kabas(24-4, 2.58 ERA, 189 strikeouts), and SP
Todd O'Brien(13-14, 2.82 ERA, 245 strikeouts). Another free agent, C
John Lounsbury(.801 OPS, 11 HR, 62 RBI), was traded to Charlotte to acquire CF
Harold Willems(.767 OPS, 27 HR, 89 RBI). San Diego surged to a 96-66 record- its best since winning 99 games in 2040- and beat out the defending champion San Jose Sharks for first place in the West Division. The Padres whipped a 93-win Hartford team in 5 games in the Divisional Round to set up their matchup against Pittsburgh. Just 2 players remain from that San Diego team: the aforementioned
Burdick, who was a 25-year old budding superstar back then, but is now a mostly washed up 39 year hoping for one last hurrah before he calls his Hall of Fame career quits(.680 OPS, 2 HR, 29 RBI); and left-fielder
Gregorio Ruiz, who was a talented but raw 22-year old rookie acquired in a deadline trade(.691 OPS, 19 HR, 56 RBI). Now,
Ruiz is a 36 year old borderline Hall of Famer who saw his numbers drop sharply this season(.748 OPS, 21 HR, 78 RBI).
Despite having gone 4-10 against Pittsburgh in the regular season, San Diego cruised past the Pirates in the NLCS, winning in 5 games. The Padres would eventually outlast Miami in 7 games to win just their second World Series. What happened after the Padres' championship is rather interesting. The following year, Pittsburgh swept San Diego in the Divisional Round en route to its first championship since '59. The Pirates then proceeded to win World Series titles in '75, '80, '81, and '83. The Padres followed up their championship with a 96-win season and the sweep to Pittsburgh, a 102-win season and a 1st round loss to San Jose, and then a complete collapse. Starting in 2076, San Diego went 65-97, 57-105, 60-102, and 71-91 over a 4 year period. Only in 2080 did the Padres begin to turn things around, with a 79-83 season. They returned to the playoffs in 2081, and had a streak of 5 consecutive playoff appearances, which ended last season, when they finished 1 game behind second place Los Angeles. The Padres made a return trip to the World Series in 2082, but lost to Miami in 6 games.
Pittsburgh's Postseason Batting:
Code:
Name G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
G. Calderon 7 28 10 1 1 0 4 4 0 7 .357 .419 .464 .884
S. Mack 7 27 7 1 0 0 0 2 0 6 .259 .259 .296 .556
R. Able 7 26 4 0 0 1 2 2 2 10 .154 .214 .269 .484
B. Cubillas 7 25 6 1 0 0 2 3 0 7 .240 .240 .280 .520
J. Harmer Jr. 7 24 5 1 0 0 0 5 6 6 .208 .387 .250 .637
R. Triado 7 23 4 1 0 0 3 0 2 2 .174 .240 .217 .457
J. Sequeira 7 22 3 0 1 0 6 1 0 3 .136 .125 .227 .352
E. Mccullough 6 20 8 3 0 0 1 2 3 8 .400 .478 .550 1.028
D. Barrientos 5 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
S. Garcia 3 7 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 .429 .500 .429 .929
I. Villalon 2 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 .200 .200 .400 .600
S. Council 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200 .200 .200 .400
H. Yosuke 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
J. Rael 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
C. Cooper 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667
A. Fajardo 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Pittsburgh's Postseason Pitching:
Code:
Name G GS W L SV ERA IP HA R ER BB K
S. Council 2 2 1 1 0 2.51 14.1 18 7 4 1 13
A. Fajardo 2 2 1 1 0 5.68 12.2 18 10 8 2 9
I. Villalon 2 2 1 1 0 6.40 12.2 14 9 9 0 14
C. Cooper 1 1 1 0 0 1.29 7.0 4 1 1 0 2
J. Barnett 3 0 0 0 3 1.93 4.2 4 1 1 1 6
D. Martinez 3 0 0 0 1 4.50 4.0 8 2 2 2 3
R. Chavez 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 2.0 2 0 0 0 0
K. Nampo 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 1.1 0 0 0 0 0
J. Vega 1 0 0 0 0 9.00 1.0 2 1 1 0 2
R. Melendez 1 0 0 0 0 9.00 1.0 2 1 1 0 0
J. Odonoghue 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.1 1 0 0 0 0
San Diego's Postseason Batting:
Code:
Name G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
G. Canales 7 29 6 0 0 1 4 1 1 1 .207 .233 .310 .544
J. Lucia 7 27 7 1 0 1 7 4 2 0 .259 .310 .407 .718
G. Matos 7 26 6 0 1 1 4 3 1 3 .231 .286 .423 .709
J. Ector 7 26 5 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 .192 .222 .308 .530
G. Ruiz 7 24 6 2 0 0 2 1 1 5 .250 .280 .333 .613
M. Alarcon 7 23 9 3 0 0 1 6 0 3 .391 .417 .522 .938
S. Alvarez 7 23 4 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 .174 .321 .174 .495
R. Ashford 6 13 7 1 0 0 2 4 1 0 .538 .571 .615 1.187
B. Romero 5 13 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 .231 .231 .231 .462
A. Burdick 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .125 .000 .125
C. Lozoya 2 5 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 .200 .200 .400 .600
T. Bee 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 .333 .333 1.333 1.667
C. Greene 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
P. Pauli 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000
R. Borland 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
M. Saldana 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
San Diego's Postseason Pitching:
Code:
Name G GS W L SV ERA IP HA R ER BB K
C. Lozoya 2 2 2 0 0 1.20 15.0 13 4 2 3 16
C. Greene 2 2 0 1 0 3.21 14.0 17 7 5 2 6
T. Bee 2 2 0 1 0 5.40 10.0 13 7 6 6 8
P. Pauli 1 1 0 1 0 9.00 7.0 9 7 7 3 6
D. Peņa 3 0 1 0 0 7.20 5.0 10 4 4 0 6
J. Ruark 2 0 0 0 2 0.00 3.0 0 0 0 0 0
J. Donato 2 0 1 0 0 3.00 3.0 5 1 1 1 2
R. Orosco 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 2.0 1 0 0 0 1
S. Eye 1 0 0 0 0 4.50 2.0 2 1 1 0 1
Prediction:
Pittsburgh's rotation is deeper than San Diego's, but the Padres' top 2 starters are just as good as the Pirates'. That means San Diego could very easily take control of the series in the first two games, potentially rendering the superiority of Pittsburgh's 3rd and 4th starters moot. Neither team really has a good enough offense to tip the scales one way or the other, though from a talent standpoint, San Diego has more top-tier hitters. Given the fact that San Diego dominated in the regular season, I'm going to have give the Padres the nod.
San Diego will win in 6 games.