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"{Or with the bases empty, to hold batters to first base?}"
Yes, I forgot about that one. That would be why some people call it the "no doubles" defense, although technically that might require guarding the lines too. Guarding the lines is the same kind of thing - positioning your first and third basemen to prevent doubles down the base lines, but at the price of widening the infiled holes and risking more singles.
"{My defensive replacements are only modest improvements on the starters. Even at third base, which I described as a 'black hole' above, the replacement is below average, and no one coming up through the minors is any better. Maybe next year.}"
Ouch. I hope they can hit well enough to help make up the difference!
"{Okay. How do I know which line to expect a bunt to go down? Small sample size, but most bunts seem to be fielded by either the catcher or pitcher.}"
I've noticed that in OOTP too, but I have the same sample size problem. So, more of a rule of thumb, most bunters going for a hit try to bunt down the third base line. This is purely anecdotal from my own watching (and more limited playing in real life) of baseball, and I've never asked anyone why or tried to do any real research on the matter. My speculation is that, if one bunts down the first base line, one risks running into the ball in fair territory (for an out) or being tagged out by a fielder in the act of picking up the ball.
I know that there are times and reasons to bunt toward first, but I'm not thinking of any at the moment. (Of course, I *am* at work :-) )
"{Good point, but I think you're right about it cutting down on attempts. I have generally good Hold Runner ratings, but my starting catcher has only a fair arm, and my opponents attempt way fewer than I do.}"
That makes sense to me logically, since a pitcher with a good hold rating knows how to speed up his motion with runners on, how to vary his delivery, when to look at the runner to freeze him, and other tricks to hurt a runner's chances.
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