Quote:
Originally Posted by SiN8
I respectfully disagree with this. Ability of a player AT THAT TIME = current ratings. Potential should be the maximum a player can ever hope to achieve in his lifetime if everything falls into place.
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I know potential isn't current ability. That's why I said it was max ability.
It's not a lifetime setting - and I'm glad it's not since players change over their baseball lifetimes in real life - both in actual performance (current ability) and projected (potential) levels.
Suppose a guy his high potential for hitting doubles because of his speed. Let's say he fouls a ball off his ankle, breaks it, needs surgery to fix it. He comes back, but he's never as fast as he was before - is his potential for doubles still the same? Why would a scout still say he has 80 of 80 grade for doubles potential when he's obviously no where near as fast?
Let's say this was a young hitter who could fly, but hasn't learned to stop swinging for the fences and just shoot the gaps (his gap actual is, say, 30 and his potential is 80). With that speed, he could be good for 50-60 doubles every year once he figures it out.
Now, he could still stroke the ball to the gaps and he's not slow by any means, but he's not that blazing fast baserunner anymore (due to the ankle injury) now that improved stroke would only get him, say, 40 doubles. His potential drops from 80 to 70.
Perhaps the way he improves his stroke is not so much the swing, but pitch selection. That pitch selection improves how many pitches he takes per PA - this could be a sign that more walks are in the future. His Eye potential might go up from 40 to 50 as scouts think experience will turn more of those 3-1 counts into walks instead of being overanxious on 3-2 or chasing ball four too much on 3-1. In other words, experience will teach him to not swing all the time in hitter's counts and the fact he's working more of them will improve his shots at walking in the future once he gets that experience.
Potential should change as the player learns the game and grows, or gets older and declines. Age and injuries can lower a player's ceiling as physical gifts erode or are lost. Experience and physical maturity can make what the player does right turn into even more results, increasing his projections.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiN8
In each draft class, there are only around 5 to 10 batters that have 1+ star potential ratings. After the first 20 picks or so, all you are left with are 1/2 or 1 star potential players. This is without turning on the scouting system. So by my second round pick, I'm left without any guidance on which of these players will get a potential increase in the future. Just randomly picking players at that point.
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I have more players in my league drafts than about 10 that are more than what would be 1 star (I use 20-80). Heck, the number of relievers alone that are potential monsters is more than that in my league. So I can't say I'm seeing the same thing in terms of level of talent coming into my drafts (all settings are at default)
As far as potential increasing/decreasing - scouts won't tell you that on draft day. In those situations, I choose who has potentials that could make him into something useful even if they don't go up. In my league, there's guys with solid contact but maybe nothing else or pitchers with good pitches and stuff potential, but a low GB rate and lower control. Maybe if he improves his GB rate, he'll get more movement (i.e. HR prevention). Things like that help me pick out guys to take chances on so it's less random picking in the sense I'm taking guys at least with something to go on. Now if everyone is just 3/3/3 or something - it does get hard.