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I agree whole heartedly with Phillie Fever and zonk84. Although a lot of OOTP owners might prefer highly predictable draft prospects -- and they are welcome to use game setup to create such a league -- if anything, OOTP top prospects are unrealistically likely to hit it big, not the other way around.
Three things are at work here:
* Talent drops (and rises) which are even more likely for draftees out of high school
* Incorrect scouts -- like real life, even the best scout is far from always right
* Mishandling prospects once they are in your minor leagues... From what I have seen, this usually takes the form of advancing prospects too quickly.
I would suggest that, instead of investing too much of yourself into the draft itself, that you put the time and interest into your farm system, noting the players with some potential (regardless of when they were picked), making sure they don't move up too fast and lose their confidence during a disastrous season, and develop skills at the most appropriate positions. It also helps to maximize the number of young guys who might possibly develop the talent to make it and cull the ones who are getting on in age without showing potential. Conversely, though, keep enough good performers in the lineup to put up a respectable record, even if they are over-age and not destined for the majors; your minor league team doesn't need to win the title, but morale can get pretty low on a bottom feeding team, and that doesn't do much for player development. (These last two points are not hopelessly in conflict -- you can use 3-4 overage starters and load up your bench with low level draftees and very young free agents, and the occasional guy will start to show talent). Anyway, my point is that there is a lot of fun, realistic, effective stuff you can do with your minor leagues.
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