Quote:
Originally Posted by Kane182
I'm not interested in debating this with you Mr. Morgan. 
As I mentioned before...No one on base in either situation and the result is the same either way, you are getting on first. |
About 96% of the time, you are right. The other 4% of the time, the result is not the same either way: the guy who hits the single gets an extra base or two due to a fielding error. A guy like Ichiro has hit 200 singles in seasons before, so that would result, typically, in about 10 extra bases off of errors made on fielding those singles.*
Put another way, if you traded 100 bases-empty walks for 100 bases-empty singles, it would be actually be like trading those 100 walks for 95 singles, 4 doubles, and a triple in terms of run-scoring value/value to the team. This is the unrepresented value of a single on an individual player's stat sheet. This is all very interesting to me.
And, of course, a single is a lot more valuable with guys on base (which we've acknowledged). I actually think walks have become OVERRATED by a lot of people lately, coming on the heels of several years of being underrated.
*This uses league fielding average for a quick example. I would have to check the data to see if errors made on singles occur at the same rate as errors made on, say, assumed ground outs to claim this with 100% certainty.