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I'm with those who say it's REALISTIC to have so many busts...
The Willie Greenes are a heck of lot more common than the Joe Mauers (and the Chad Greens are even more common than the Willie Greenes).
That said, I find I maximize my picks via looking at more than just pure talent ratings...
Work ethic and injury history play a HUGE role. I'll almost never - if ever - spend a 1st round pick on a player with lower than average work ethic. Ditto 'fragile' players.
Check the actual ratings, too - not just the talent. In other words - college players tend to be a better bet than HS players. A 10/10/10 HS with near non-existent current ratings is almost always a surefire flameout. I'd much rather grab a 6/8/8/ college player who can step right into Double A.
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO YOUR PRIZED DRAFTEES!!! If you auto-setup or let the AI set up your minor leagues, you better make sure your prized draftee isn't 1)being rushed - playing at a level over his head kills his development, 2)stuck behind a logjam - if you've got multiple prospects at the same position - the inverse of above... a prospect has mastered a level but is blocked, or 3)sitting on the bench in the minors.
If you value your highly rated, upper round draftees -- cultivating them requires both the care and time in picking out the right one AND paying attention to them and their development in your system.
Heck, I go so far as to shift around my best minor league coaches to "follow" my best prospects, I manually promote players, manually set minor league lineups, make sure they go on the DL when hurt, etc.
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