Quote:
Originally Posted by gord
I was looking at the league totals from my GCL league, trying to get the LTMs right. I simmed an entire season and they aren't close to being right. I know they only play 54 games, but is this right?
Code:
Bold stuff added by Sweed are suggested average or per game stat vs actual stat or per game average with suggested first and actual second
CAT.........Sugg...........Actual
AB...........88229..........28918
H............23532..........6505 .266\.225 need more hits
2B..........4658...........1198 .197\.184 % of hits is close
3B..........977............150 .041\.023 % of hits too low
HR..........1674...........331 .071\.051 to low
BB..........8674...........2190 divide by games played
HBP.........1654...........241 to compare these stats
K...........21607..........2725 .245\.094 % of ABs Way to low
League averages (BA/OBP/SLG): .225/.282/.311
Appalachian League:
Code:
CAT.........Sugg...........Actual
AB..........88229..........22086
H...........23532..........5062
2B..........4658...........907
3B..........977............110
HR..........1674...........323
BB..........8674...........1755
HBP.........1654...........165
K...........21607..........2382
Averages: .256/.318/.362 |
Well those starting figures are not based on a 54 game schedule which explains why your numbers aren't close. Note my MLB suggested At Bats (based on a 162 game schedule with 30 teams) are 167,353. Looks like those are based on a ~75 to 80 game schedule. Keep in mind that doesn't really matter except for comparing actual numbers at the end of the season. It is the ratios that are important. I've added some bold items to your code box.
I am going to assume this is all with 1.000 modifiers...
Looking at your first example I added the bold to. Your league should be hitting .266 but they are hitting .225. Here is how I fix that. Your league had 28,918 AB's so you should have gotten 7,692 hits (28,918*.266=7692.188) but you got 6505. You fix this by finding the percentage difference between suggested and actual stats and either add or subtract from your current modifier (that I am assuming are starting at 1.000). So..
7692-6505=1187
1187/7692=.154 you're 15.4% too low in hits
.154+1.000=1.154 that's your new hit modifier
Or you can do it just using the averages the game is giving you IE
.266 suggested .225 actual
.266-.225=.041
.041\.266=.154
.154+1.00=1.154 (your new modifier)
Your not getting enough hits but what happens if this was reversed and you were getting too many? The answer is the same except you subtract from your original modifier. So lets say your suggested was .225 but your actual was .266 we would do this..
.225 suggested .266 actual
.225-.266= -.041
-.041\.225= -0.182
-.182+1.000= 0.817 (new modifier)
Do the same for your K's, that is as a percentage of at bats. For doubles, triples, and homers figure as a percentage of hits. Getting your league hitting .266 instead of .225 will do a lot to straightening out your numbers IE increase 2b, 3b, and HR's.
BB and HBP should be done as a per game average so I can't comment since I don't know how many games your league played.
The key is getting league batting average, walks, strikeouts, and double plays right first. This gets your OBP correct.
Then move onto getting the 2b, 3b, and hr right as a percentage of total hits, this will give your realistic slugging pct.
Also when talking about minor leagues I'm certainly not as anal as I am for my Major League. Something close to realism is fine for minors IMHO.
Hope that helps.