Quote:
Originally Posted by andymac
The reason we use "luck" is because the data shows us that over time it is extremely likely that pitcher A and pitcher B will pretty much end up in the same place when it comes to batted balls. Sure, there are physics at work, but the data suggests (and batter f/x will likely show) that the variance in that physics will be correlated to a much larger extent with the batter than the pitcher. What will be curious to see is whether there is any significant correlation with the pitcher at all.
|
If it correlates very strongly to hitters - wouldn't that make finding out how it works on the pitching side even MORE important? What skills the pitchers that DO have significant impact have over the resulting batted ball physics - and how do we find them? Not just say "unlucky pitcher" or the like?
The rarer the skill, the more desirable and sought after, no?
I would think if hit f/x does show, say, 85% of it is impacted by the hitter (just an illustration) then finding pitchers who can maximize that 15% would be of high order importance instead of just tossing it aside as luck for pitchers.
Maybe I'm off base here, but that seems to make sense to me - find the rarer skill and put more time in understanding it so you can seek it out for your team and gain an advantage.