Quote:
Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper
If you think wOBA is so easy to calculate, then answer this: what is the wOBA of a batter who goes 2 for 20, with 1 double and 1 home run?
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...it's a trick question because you can't answer the question with the information given. You need to know how many average runs per game are scored in the league. So the first question becomes: how to determine what the average runs/game are for the league? Does Markus use historical data from the ootp league or does he estimate based on the league modifiers in the League Setup screen (remember that we can use the League Setup screen to create any variety of wacky run scrogin environments)? Let's say for argument's sake that Markus codes it to estimate the expected runs/game based on the league modifiers for the league. Let's say this results in estimating 4.3 expected runs/game. Well then what? What run values do you associate with HR, 3B, 2B, etc? You could refer to Sabremetrics 301: Custom Linear Weights, but this only provides estimates for the 4 R/G or 5 R/G - nothing for 4.3 R/G.
If you try to apply the wOBA linear weights derived from modern MLB to another era such as deadball, wOBA may very well be less accuate than OPS. Just a word of caution. |
Not to beat a dead horse here. But.... the same issue would come up when looking at high run or low run environment in different minor leagues. wRC+ is in some ways a better metric than wOBA for that reason. My initial though was that Fangraphs wOBA found a way to adjust for league offensive levels, but it does appear to be so after a cursory glance.