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Old 04-29-2003, 10:09 AM   #1
cooper_gd
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Joe Morgan on OBP

A little OT, but it was a hot topic last week in re to OOTP and I think this a good article. . .

Quote:
Putting on-base percentage in perspective

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By Joe Morgan
Special to ESPN.com


On-base percentage has become the statistic of choice these days. I've heard some say that OBP is the most important stat in baseball. But I disagree with that assessment.

While OBP is an important barometer, it isn't the most important. I remember when ESPN began listing OBP along with batting average in graphics on baseball telecasts, which is helpful for the viewer. No question, it's always been important.

But no one baseball statistic defines winning and losing. Each statistic measures one aspect of baseball proficiency. So excelling at a single stat won't enable a team to win a pennant. Instead, a healthy balance of key statistics can lead to a world championship.

Getting runners on base via walks is good, but you need someone to drive those runners in. No one can go from first to third on a walk (except, perhaps, Rickey Henderson in his prime). You need someone to get hits so you can utilize aggressive baserunning.

You can't win a championship only with a good OBP or home runs or stealing bases or solid defense or strong pitching. Each team will emphasize certain stats -- certain proficiencies -- depending on its makeup. But a team needs a combination to achieve ultimate success.

For example, the Atlanta Braves have won 11 straight division titles thanks mainly to their stellar pitching -- but they've won only one World Series in that time. That's because they don't hit consistently in the playoffs. And their pitchers haven't been able to dominate good teams in the playoffs the way they dominate inferior teams in the regular season.

Everyone talks about the importance of pitching -- and absolutely, you need good pitching to win championships. But pitching alone doesn't guarantee postseason success. Nor does hitting (just ask the Texas Rangers).

It's a similar story with individual players. I've always said that to be a good player you need to either drive in runs or score runs -- and to be a great player you need to do both. The best players are a blend of baseball's most essential skills, with statistics serving as the numerical barometer.


NL style has right stuff
The Oakland Athletics offer a good case study of why I believe the prototypical National League style of play is the perfect offensive philosophy.

The A's have relied on the walk and the home run, and they've reached the postseason the past three years. But they've lost in the first round each year, because walks and home runs tend to drop off in the playoffs. The A's offensive style hasn't been conducive to manufacturing runs. They don't steal bases or hit-and-run much.

The National League style of play is more aggressive and does seek to manufacture runs. Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia played in the National League for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he brought an NL style of play to the Angels last season -- with championship results.

Likewise, Joe Torre brought an aggressive National League style of play to the New York Yankees in 1996, and they won four of five World Series. Granted, other factors contributed to the Yankees' success, but that NL style was essential. The Yankees weren't built on hitting the home run. No Yankee led the league or even challenged for the home-run crown in those four championship years.

Rather, they followed the philosophy of getting on base, moving runners along and getting them home while utilizing the hit-and-run and aggressive baserunning. To me, that's the best way to play. And this approach encompasses more than just OBP or batting average or RBI -- as a team, you must do all those things well.

The way baseball is played today, the stolen base seems to be an afterthought. But I see the use of it as a tremendous tool. It forces the opposition to play a different defense and it forces opposing pitchers to throw more fastballs.

The last three teams to win the World Series -- the Angels, Diamondbacks and Yankees -- all played an aggressive NL style. Some teams look for the walk and the home run. If that works, great. But recent history shows this approach doesn't win in the postseason.
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