Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
In other words, giving Andy Messersmith a small BAIBP offset that is "correct" should result in better career numbers for him (as his BIP grows larger random noise will reduce), but it will not make him any more consistent from year-to-year. The variance will just move around a different center.
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Not that I am actually advising this either because Im not sure that its true but wouldnt (as an example)+/-25% of his career BABIP be closer to HIS reality rather than +/-75+% of the league average BABIP?
IMO by going down this road we are creating a bigger mess however.