Quote:
Originally Posted by knockahoma
I THINk for every pitcher with a 4 year roller-coaster BABIP you can show me, I can show you FIVE that are pretty darn consistent thru a 4 year period. And that's where I wonder if OOTP is off.
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I think you need to do that before you can be sure that you can do it. Since in a fictional universe the results in OOTP seem decent and Ronco's recent defensive work is encouraging, I think the burden of proof is on you.
Starting from the bottom of the top 1000 pitchers in MLB wins.. the active pitchers, using what look to be seasons with at least decent sample sizes:
Jake Westbrook .275-.324
Braden Looper .256-.322
Kip Wells .260-.346
Jose Contreras .262-.330 3 straight years with WS goes - 262/284/330
Dontrelle Willis .288-.326 as bad as he has been this year... it's .306
Dave Weathers .232-.366
Mariano Rivera .212-.325
Kris Benson .263-.318 3 years Pit 318/320/312 to NYM 273/263 Bal 283
Adam Eaton .282-.329
Dan Haren .288-.307
These are the 10 active pitchers with between 63 and 71 career wins.
Haren was super consistent... but guess what. 2009 his number is down to .230.
Pretty much everyone else is inconsistent. I'm not seeing where you are going to find a 5:1 ratio of consistent to inconsistent. I've never even really looked at BABIP in OOTP other then to make a roster decision at a point in time. I've never given much thought to it, because since the results in fictionals pass the smell test, I'm guessing that the BABIP will also pass that test.
If you limit the study to pitchers like Ryan and Johnson who pitches for decades... sooner or later they are going to have chunks of seasons that are consistent. It's 0.1% of pitchers who last that long though, so are they really representative of the pitching world in general?