Quote:
|
knock - I don't think the bold part is the consensus view and I don't think what I said has been "refuted by most." But these issues have been discussed ad nausum in the other 2 long threads, so I'll just leave it at that
|
I totally understand wanting to avoid the frustration. I do believe that's the current wisdom on BABIP. I'd be willing to go check the biggies for their view. I want to get it right, not argue.
So, I'll probably go find some stuff from James, Tango, Tippett, etc.
As far as BABIP modeled in OOTP, I think it's just an
adjustment toward the pitcher. Like I said, I'm a huge Belanger fan. I think defense matters. I just don't think it matters to the extent that it can turn an Andy Messersmith into a Dave Freisleben, and vice versa.
So, if pitcher contribution to BABIP (scale 1-10) was currently at 1, I'd like to see it move to a 2, or 3, or 4. Whatever correctly models what happens to BABIP when a pitcher moves from one team to another.
I'm continuing to search, but I haven't seen any pitchers in the 70s be traded to a team with an accompanying EXPLOSION in their BABIP. I see some that can be attributed to a poorer defense by interpretation (like going from .255 to .275). But going from .243 to .310 just because you got traded? If those kinds of changes occured in the mid-70's they were rare and probably involved a veteran in his last year or two in the league.
Of course, I invite someone else to research that. Makes me do less work!