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knockahoma · 06-19-2009, 09:40 AM

Hey Ron. I'm glad to see those numbers. But, I've got some that really concern me.

My concern is that BABIP is too strongly tied to a team's defense. Now, remember

, I'm the guy who thinks Mark Belanger can make a real difference on defense! Putting aside any philosophical concerns (which are just matters of degree, really) about BABIP, I don't like how it's modeled in the game.

Andy Messersmith was a very consistent pitcher, from his debut with California, on to the Dodgers, and then to the Braves.

I wanted to see how Messersmith did in 74 with various teams and defenses. I did several seasons with each team. Summing up, he was pretty much his good, ol' self with LA. But, most seasons, when starting with Detroit, or San Diego, his ERA would rocket up from sub 3.00 to 3.85 and occasionally above 4.00. While his K, BB, HR numbers were usually characteristic, it was his BABIP that went out of whack.

For the record, let me say, I don't believe if Messersmith had been traded to Detroit, or San Diego in 1974 that his ERA would have shot up a full point, or point and a half, just because of the defense behind him (BABIP).

I don't see an effect that large in pitchers who have been traded. Sure, if their homers and walks sky-rocket, the ERA can go off the charts (maybe a pitcher with a penchant for giving up homers gets traded to a cozy little park and gets hammered, or like Steve Blass, he suddenly can't find the plate).

But, pitching seems to be the greater issue with historical accuracy in OOTP, and I think tying pitcher performance too strongly to defense is a problem. Of course, D does affect pitchers. But would Messersmith go from 2.65 to 4.10 just by going from LA to Detroit? It didn't happen when he went from LA to the struggling Braves. He did finish up at around 3.00, which was a high ERA for him. That's a much more realistic change, I think. Real life.

To me, that's more than an import issue.

06-19-2009, 09:40 AM	#47
knockahoma All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 792	Hey Ron. I'm glad to see those numbers. But, I've got some that really concern me. My concern is that BABIP is too strongly tied to a team's defense. Now, remember , I'm the guy who thinks Mark Belanger can make a real difference on defense! Putting aside any philosophical concerns (which are just matters of degree, really) about BABIP, I don't like how it's modeled in the game. Andy Messersmith was a very consistent pitcher, from his debut with California, on to the Dodgers, and then to the Braves. I wanted to see how Messersmith did in 74 with various teams and defenses. I did several seasons with each team. Summing up, he was pretty much his good, ol' self with LA. But, most seasons, when starting with Detroit, or San Diego, his ERA would rocket up from sub 3.00 to 3.85 and occasionally above 4.00. While his K, BB, HR numbers were usually characteristic, it was his BABIP that went out of whack. For the record, let me say, I don't believe if Messersmith had been traded to Detroit, or San Diego in 1974 that his ERA would have shot up a full point, or point and a half, just because of the defense behind him (BABIP). I don't see an effect that large in pitchers who have been traded. Sure, if their homers and walks sky-rocket, the ERA can go off the charts (maybe a pitcher with a penchant for giving up homers gets traded to a cozy little park and gets hammered, or like Steve Blass, he suddenly can't find the plate). But, pitching seems to be the greater issue with historical accuracy in OOTP, and I think tying pitcher performance too strongly to defense is a problem. Of course, D does affect pitchers. But would Messersmith go from 2.65 to 4.10 just by going from LA to Detroit? It didn't happen when he went from LA to the struggling Braves. He did finish up at around 3.00, which was a high ERA for him. That's a much more realistic change, I think. Real life. To me, that's more than an import issue. Last edited by knockahoma; 06-19-2009 at 09:45 AM.