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Old 06-18-2009, 04:30 PM   #41
jar2574
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 405
knock --

Someone quoted the Bill James quote that said "an awful lot of what we think of as pitching is really defense."

I'd only add that sometimes pitching is an awful lot of luck. This means that some "stud" pitcher from 1974, or 1987, or 2008, might not have been a stud if his BABIP was different. And there's no reason for the game not to allow for that possibility, in my opinion.

One example: Ricky Nolasco

His stikeout / walk ratio is worse than last years, but he's still striking out almost 3 times as many guys as he walks. The biggest reason for his demotion to AAA was just bad luck -- his BABIP was almost .400

I picked him up in my fantasy league because nobody will be that unlucky forever. But for some young guys with less talent than Ricky, a stretch of bad luck will mean they get demoted and then never get back to the bigs.

Look at Ricky's numbers. BABIP fluctuates so wildly that it turned one of last year's studs into a AAA guy for a short time:
Ricky Nolasco Pitching Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

HR/9
2006: 1.3
2007: 1.3
2008: 1.2
2009: 1.3

BB/9
2006: 2.6
2007: 3.8
2008: 1.8
2009: 2.7

SO/9
2006: 6.4
2007: 4.6
2008: 7.9
2009: 7.9

BABIP
2006: .286
2007: .321
2008: .278
2009: .388

ERA
2006: 4.82
2007: 5.48
2008: 3.52
2009: 7.62

Last edited by jar2574; 06-18-2009 at 04:32 PM.
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