[knockahoma]

My concern with BABIP in OOTP was featured in a 1974 replay last night. Andy Messersmith consistently beat the league average in BABIP through out his career. He appeared to me far more consistent than knuckle-baller Phil Niekro in that category.

In the replay, Messersmith gave up the EXACT number of homers as real life and was within literally a couple of walks and k's from his real life totals. An amazing reproduction on those numbers!

But Messersmith's 2.60 ERA didn't follow. Instead of the sub .250 BABIP he had in real life, his BABIP ballooned to above .300. That's back in the 70s by the way when the average BABIP was more .275-.285. Messersmith finished at 3.85, a point and a half beyond his actual ERA that year.

In this one instance, Messersmith's lack of control over his BABIP ruined a great replay for the pitcher. All other numbers were spot-on. Messersmith, who gave up 25 HRs, needed that good BABIP. Stripped of it, he finished with a nearly 4.00 ERA. LA finished 1st, so the defense probably imported decently.

I've been studying a lot of pitchers from the mid-70s. I've especially been looking at pitchers traded in mid-season. It's my growing belief that while defense and luck are major factors in real life BABIP, the better the pitcher, the less luck involved. In other words, you could take a mediocre pitcher, transplant him to an excellent defense and see good improvement.

But so far, I'm seeing a pattern with very good pitchers. If you transplant them back and forth between teams, their BABIP often remains consistent.

That's exactly what I would expect of a good pitcher who can exercise control over K's, BBs, HRs and BABIP in various degrees.