Quote:
Originally Posted by Matter2003
looking at baseball-reference.com's list of 1st round picks over the years and their careers, shows that in any given 1st round, there are only between 1 and 4 players that go on to have really good MLB careers. Sure there are a lot of players who make it to the majors, as should be expected---usually between 63-79% of a given class, and probably about half of them turn into regular major league players with nice careers, but most of them are just your every day run of the mill average to good players---not the really great ones you expect when you draft them in the first round.
How else is OOTP supposed to model this? Obviously the scouts all thought at the time, these players were going to be really good, otherwise they would not have wasted a 1st round pick on them. They all thought their potentials were going to be very high. Over time however, they started realizing the players just didn't have the potential they thought they did, or they just didn't develop properly. Either way, the players never turned out to be what they thought they would be, and this is the case for 86-96% of the players drafted in the first round. I am still trying to understand the drafting problem when this type of factual information is presented...
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Especially in the first round, I think we'd agree that MLB scouts feel that their options are considered 5-star prospect potential. So, I'd also think that there should be 5-star draftees, at least to fill out the 1st round, if not the second.
70% or so of 1st rounders make it to the MLB.
Of those 70%, 21 of 30, how many become all-stars? 3 or 4 of 21? 14-20%?
How many are serviceable WARP? 10 of 21?
Of those how many are cup of coffee and gone? 7 of 21?
Of those 21, only 1 every two years or so becomes a HOF?
Developing a 5 star draftee into an all star should be more likely to happen when compared to a 1 star draftee. 1 star draftees are mostly seen as filler for the minors.
So, what should the odds be that your 5 star draftee becomes an all star, relative to how many draft rounds you have and compared to the odds for a 1 star becoming an all star... Both should be possible, but one should be more likely to happen.
As for the investment in scouting, the Red Sox and Theo made a commitment to their 100 million dollar development machine and they have produced results. Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Masterson, Papelbon, Hanley Ramirez, Bard, Delcarmen, Lester, Lowrie... (Some All-Stars and MVPs) All these guys weren't coming around prior to Theo, relatively speaking. So, if you look at it in OOTP terms, if you are to invest heavily in scouting and development, you should see some results at least compared to those who don't invest in scouting.