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Let's look at history:
Player
Tim Beckham
David Price
Luke Hochevar
Justin Upton
Matthew Bush
Delmon Young
Bryan Bullington
Joe Mauer
Adrian Gonzalez
Josh Hamilton
Pat Burrell
Matt Anderson
Kris Benson
Darin Erstad
Paul Wilson
Alex Rodriguez
Phil Nevin
Brien Taylor
Chipper Jones
Ben McDonald
Andy Benes
Ken Griffey
Jeff King
B.J. Surhoff
Shawn Abner
Tim Belcher
Shawon Dunston
Mike Moore
Darryl Strawberry
Al Chambers
Bob Horner
Harold Baines
Floyd Bannister
Danny Goodwin
Bill Almon
David Clyde
Dave Roberts
Danny Goodwin
Mike Ivie
Jeff Burroughs
Tim Foli
Ron Blomberg
Steve Chilcott
Rick Monday
David Price is starting to make a splash in Tampa. He had a nice post-season last year. Luke Hochevar is in his third season of suck. Justin Upton may become a legend. Most 19 year olds never get a chance to stink at the ML level, but he did. Now that he is 21, he is looking good. Delmon Young is a slap hitter who runs like Bill Buckner and makes contact like Pete Incaviglia. Bryan Bullington is a waste. Joe Mauer is building a case for Cooperstown. Adrian Gonzalez is an established star, and maybe starting a case for Cooperstown.
Josh Hamilton...what could have been? He is now a ML star, though his resume is slender. He had a nice Home Run Hitting contest once. Pat Burrell is a flawed .257 hitting slugger going downhill. Matt Anderson is a bust. I liked the bust of Kris Benson's wife. Darin Erstad had a nice season once, but when you look at his career and his numbers, you wonder just a bit. What was that 2000 season all about? Was he lucky? Was he doping? Was that true talent? He never did anything like it before or after. Paul Wilson got ate up by injury, physically and mentally. He was never an impact player. Alex Rodriguez is the definition of impact player. He's worth a billion dollars. Phil Nevin had a decent career, but never had a home on the field or in an organization. Again, I wonder if he was using PEDS at some point, as he got oddly better at 28.
Brien Taylor? Epic bust. Chipper Jones? Stellar. Ben McDonald? Good while his rotator cuff lasted. Andy Benes had a fine career. Ken Griffey Jr ended up on MLB's All Time Team before he was 30.
I could go back to 1965. Most players made it to the majors. In that group, most were good, occasionally winning a trip to the All Star Game. One of them once led their team to the World Series once.
In 44 picks, you have 3 Hall of Famers, with 3 more building a resume for Cooperstown. You also have 10 complete busts. Of those 44 players, I think there are just 10 studs.
That's a hell of a success rate.
Based on history, I predict in seven seasons we will say "Steven who?". Less likely, baseball fans will say "Steven" in hushed tones and even my mom will know who you are talking about.
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