Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Rays Notes - I'm sorry for any subjectivity here. I'll do my best to make a valid case.
Matt Garza - Seems underdeveloped. The editor shows him in line for a 4.00 ERA. In 2007 his ERA was 3.69 as a rookie. In 2008 it was 3.70. Right now in 2008 it is 3.67. That seems like a pretty stable skill set. The problem seems to be in his Stuff. His best pitch is a 92 mph 2-seam fastball that moves down and in. His 4 seamer is regular at 94/95 and touches 96.
|
Matt Garza
Garza's projections from the preseason are from 3.84 to 3.94. A 4.00 ERA in a neutral environment is OK.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Kazmir - seems overdeveloped. His editor's 3.11 ERA is much better than his career high. In recent years his slider has become much less of a factor and his fastball seems overrated as well.
|
Scott Kazmir
Here you may be onto something. He projects from 3.40 to 3.78 ERA (sorry, I do not have BP's PECOTA stuff in front of me, or I'd quote that, too). Note that Tropicana Field has a slight favor to hitters, so Kazmir should go up a little bit from that 3.11.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
David Price - The pitch ratings are a bit off. Right now's he's getting credit for one of the best changeups in the league (that rating is more befitting Shields). Price was actually in AAA working on his change-up. It is league average at best at this point. On the other hand, his fastball is dominant he can hit 98 regularly but gets wild at that pace. He throws it with more control at 95,96.
|
That's a good criticism.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Shields - May be nitpicking, but the expected 3.88 ERA for Shields seems high. He's shown a growth trend over the last 3 years that makes a 3.65 seem more reasonable. In addition, his fastball is underrated here, along with his change which is one of the best in the league. His velocity sits comfortably at 91-92 IRL
|
James Shields
Shields projects 3.61 to 3.81. I wonder what PECOTA says. He may need a slight tweak, or none at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Carlos Pena - Won a gold glove last year and has been one of the best defensive 1bmen in the league for a few years. the 6 rating at First is low
|
The Fielding Bible Awards from last season have Pena in 4th place overall, behind Pujols, Teixiera, and Kotchman. He was 5th in +/- at 1B last season, and 8th overall in +/- over the last three seasons.
I can see a good arguement to increase his skill defensively.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Willy Aybar - Defensive ratings are ridiculously good. He's not a better 1st baseman than Pena and he's not better than Longoria at 3rd, but these ratings say he is.
|
It's hard to compare Aybar to these guys if both Pena and Longoria are rated too low. Nichevo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Longoria - Nitpicking, but that 7 defensive rating is low. He's constantly getting praised as one of the best defensive 3b in the league and has been compared to Schmidt and Brooks Robinson. Specifically the rating of turning the double play is low, along with range. Remember, he played SS in college and was expected to play 2b when drafted.
|
If a player has too high of a turn double play, then the AI dreams of playing them at SS or 2B. That aside, Longoria should be the best or second best defensive 3B in the game. There's room for improvement there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Gabe Gross - A little too good defensively. His .271 expected BA is high in comparison with his career #'s. Just seems a shade too good of a player.
|
Gabe Gross
Gross projected at .245 to .262. He is a little too good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Gabe Kapler - he's nowhere near this good and his component skills from last year showed that it was flukey.
|
Gabe Kapler
Kapler should be a useful part-time player. He's probably off by 20 points.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
Carl Crawford - numbers seem too depressed based on last years performance. He's shown that he's a consistent .300 hitter when healthy. His .770 OPS is low compared to history, particularly easy to spot the missing triples in the editor #'s.
|
Carl Crawford
Marcel has Crawford's OPS at .772, and ZiPS at .769. Seems OK.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joaker
...That's all I have for now, I'm not going to bother with the minor leaguers, even though Hellickson is a better prospect than that, as is Desmond Jennings
|
We could use more of this type of constructive criticism.