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Flying Dutchmen · 06-02-2009, 09:45 AM

I'm by no means an expert on historical play, but here are some thoughts on the Niekro example. The following are some of his stats from 1973-5 and the NL league pitching stats for that period:

Code:

Year   ERA   WHIP   BABIP  ERA+   FIP   L-ERA   L-WHIP
1973   3.31  1.237  .256   120    3.76  3.67    1.331
1974   2.38  1.115  .259   159    3.04  3.63    1.357
1975   3.20  1.295  .288   118    3.81  3.63    1.360

These numbers say to me that Niekro really only had one stellar year of the three mentioned - 1974 - and that his success in 1973 and 1975 was due to the defense backing him. The WHIP numbers in those years don't show someone much better than league average, especially if one considers that the league ERA and WHIP include all pitchers, including those marginal pitchers who made only a few appearances.

It looks more as though defense is the culprit here, but that ties in with well-documented concerns by many on this board regarding how defense is calculated and operates in historical play.

06-02-2009, 09:45 AM	#139
Flying Dutchmen Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 213	I'm by no means an expert on historical play, but here are some thoughts on the Niekro example. The following are some of his stats from 1973-5 and the NL league pitching stats for that period: Code: Year ERA WHIP BABIP ERA+ FIP L-ERA L-WHIP 1973 3.31 1.237 .256 120 3.76 3.67 1.331 1974 2.38 1.115 .259 159 3.04 3.63 1.357 1975 3.20 1.295 .288 118 3.81 3.63 1.360 These numbers say to me that Niekro really only had one stellar year of the three mentioned - 1974 - and that his success in 1973 and 1975 was due to the defense backing him. The WHIP numbers in those years don't show someone much better than league average, especially if one considers that the league ERA and WHIP include all pitchers, including those marginal pitchers who made only a few appearances. It looks more as though defense is the culprit here, but that ties in with well-documented concerns by many on this board regarding how defense is calculated and operates in historical play.