[Eugene Church]

The Islandian Times

Monday, September 29, 2003

IPA Elite 8 Series

IPA Pro Cup Elite 8 Series Begins Today
And then there were only 8 -- the IPA Pro Cup playoffs are now down to just 8 teams and they will begin battle today for the title of the best professional baseball team in the Islands. The winner will claim the IPA Pro Cup.

Representing the Ruthlandian Union are the Valmara Vipers (95-59), St. John Crusaders (89-65), Elnora All-Stars (88-66), Middlefield Roosters (85-69), while the Tycobbian Union teams are the Bayview Vikings (92-62), Oxford Red Caps (87-67), Red Bluff Red Sox (85-69) and Turon Typhoons (84-70).

The Elite 8 playoff series will be a best-of-three with the All-Stars hosting the Vipers and the Roosters entertaining the Crusaders in the RU. The Tycobbian match-ups have Oxford on the road in Red Bluff and Bayview traveling to Turon. The teams will switch venues for games two and three.

And who is going to reign supreme? Who knows? In a short series the best team doesn't always win. All it takes is for a team to have two good games to take the series. They don't even have to be back-to-back good games. The team favored to take the crown this year has already bitten the dust. The San Alejo Montaneros (96-58) were knocked off in the Sweet 16 by the Turon Typhoons (84-70), who have had to come back in both of their series and win the last two games after an opening game loss. The Ranford Bulls (92-62) didn't make it past the first round. They were swept by Far Mountain (87-67). The defending IPA champions, the High Mesa Cowboys (84-70) also lost in the opening round, upset by the Tuckanarra Blue Jays (83-71). Another strong favorite, Volusia (88-66), was swept in two games by Forest City (80-74) in the first round. Hartsdale (88-66) also fell to some fine pitching by Luxora (82-72) in the opening round. A solid Fairfax Frog team (87-67) was beaten two in a row by Oxford (87-67) in round one.

My original pick to win the Ruthlandian Union was the Volusia Vigilantes because of their great pitching. Over in the West, San Alejo was my decided favorite. The Montaneros dominated the league this season in just about all categories just like they did last year. So much for those selections. Looks like I have to try my luck again.

This time around, if I went by who's playing the best right now, I would go with the powerful Oxford Red Caps and the upstart Middlefield Roosters, who both swept their First Round and Sweet 16 Series. I am going to do some intense computer analysis of all the Elite 8 teams and come up with some brilliant deductions and WARP factors.

Just kidding. I'll leave all that to the WORP aficianados.

I will quickly peruse the team stats, pitching rotations and line-ups and come to my astute prognostications. Two years ago Volusia and Ginza were rated sixth and seventh best by yours truly to win the inaugural championship. Nonetheless, they made the finals with the V's sweeping the Ninjas. Last year San Alejo and Glasco were my choices to get to the finals with the Montaneros taking the title. Surprise, surprise -- it didn't happen that way -- Glasco was eliminated in the Elite 8 by Elnora and San Alejo fell to the eventual Pro Cup winner, High Mesa in the Final 4. The Cowboys took the All-Stars in three straight to take the crown.

I think Elnora will win the Ruthlandian playoffs and Oxford will be left standing in the Tycobbian Union. When the dust settles on the diamond, the Red Caps will gloriously prevail. Manager Campy Roy has three fine workhorses in Boomer Belinsky (20-13 2.41), Dan Phillips (23-10 3.36) and Nicky Nicholson (16-14 2.83). They all three can go deep into the game with 39 complete games between them. In addition Roy has a strong closer in Emerson Carnell (5-5 2.68), who has yet to give up a run in nine innings in the playoffs. It's scary to look at the Red Cap line-up, which has five players who hit over 17 homers. 3B Joe Courtney (.342) topped them with 47, followed by CF Ike Plunkett (.314) with 36, LF Mac Spencer (.272) with 33, C Brad Earp (.277) with 21 and RF Dante Vander Meer (.268), who totaled 17 in 100 games. All of them hit from the left side and will face nothing but righthanders from Elnora. Oxford will play at least two games at Winchester Park which strongly favors lefties with its short right field fences. It's only 300 down the line, 335 to right and just 365 in the power alley in right. The Red Caps hit 189 out the ballpark this season and gave up only 76.

Zoggy White's Elnora All-Stars staff can't match Oxford's pitching corps, although they are quite good with the likes of Harry Dye (21-11 3.58), Taylor Gibbs (20-13 2.36) and Charlie Murphy (16-15 3.07). Elnora closer Matty Wilkerson (6-7 3.67) has not been as effective as Carnell. Give Oxford the edge there, too. The All-Stars have a solid quartet of hitters in 3B Dmitri Vrotsos (.300) with 29 roundtrippers, RF Quincy Peterson (.308) with 26, 2B Gil Foster (.312) with 24, LF Paul Giles (.244) with 22 and CF Rusty Gilbert (.315) with 15. But that pales in comparison with the Red Caps sluggers. Elnora went deep 142 times this season, while allowing only 89.

The two clubs are pretty even in team batting with Elnora hitting .269 and Oxford .267. The All-Stars have the edge with a 3.16 ERA to the the Red Caps 3.27 ERA. Elnora also tops them with a .977 FA to .970 for Oxford. Better power and stronger starters give the edge to Oxford. The Red Caps also have outstanding speed. They stole 176 bases to 91 for Elnora.

Of course, all of my astute reasoning could go out the window. I'm sure the other six clubs could have some influence on how all of this plays out. I don't think they are going to keel over and play dead now that I have told them they are not going to win.