Originally Posted by rasnell
Using the actual 25-man rosters of all MLB teams on Opening Day, here are my projections based on 10 sims of the 2009 season using OOTP 09 and CubbyFan rosters.
But, first, the headlines. The Yankees project to be the best team in baseball and Atlanta is a strong second and clearly the best in the NL. The Dodgers are very strong. Surprising to me are the Brewers, Mariners, Marlins and Giants. Reds may finally play .500 for first time in nine years; their pitching won't be that good, but offense surprisingly will make up for loss of Adam Dunn. The Reds even reached the post season in 1 of 10 sims.
Likely division winners and wild cards in the AL are Yankees, Indians and A's with a battle for the wildcard involving Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays.
In the NL, the division winners and wild cards are Braves, Dodgers, Brewers with huge wild card battles among Cubs, Giants, D'backs, Mets, Marlins, Phillies.
I would project a Yankees/Braves World Series with the Yankees winning. But the Dodgers would be my third candidate for a possible World Series appearance.
AL East
1. Yankees, 95.9 wins, 9 post-season appearances, 6 World Series appearances, 3 WS championships.
2. Red Sox, 88.1 wins, 5 post, 1 WS, 0 champ.
3. Rays, 86.9 wins, 4 post, 0 WS.
4. Blue Jays, 81.375, 0 post.
5. Orioles, 70 wins, 0 post.
AL Central
1. Indians, 88.8, 8 post, 0 WS, 0 champ.
2. Royals, 75, 0,0,0.
3. Twins, 74.7, 2, 0, 0.
4. White Sox, 73.6, 0,0,0.
5. Tigers, 73.5, 0,0,0.
AL West
1. Athletics, 82.9, 7 post, 2 WS, 0 champ.
2. Mariners, 77.7, 1,0,0.
3. Angels, 75.4, 1, 1, 1.
4. Rangers, 75.3, 0,0,0.
NL East
1. Braves, 92.5, 7,0,0.
2. Mets, 86.8, 4, 4, 0.
3. Phillies, 83.4, 2,0,0.
4. Marlins, 83.2, 1,0,0.
5. Nationals, 73.6, 0,0,0.
NL Central
1. Brewers, 87, 5,0,0.
2. Cubs, 85.7, 4, 1, 1 (yes, that's a World Series championship in 1 of 10 sims).
3. Cards, 81, 3, 1, 0.
4. Reds, 80.4, 1,0,0.
5. Astros, 77.7, 0,0,0.
6. Pirates, 75.9, 1,0,0.
NL West
1. Dodgers, 90.5, 7,2,2.
2. Giants, 86.875, 3,0,0.
3. Diamondbacks, 83.8, 2, 1, 1.
4. Padres, 77.67, 2,1,1 (almost inconceivable 1 in 10 WS championship).
5. Rockies, 75.67, 0,0,0.
Individual players:
-- Nick Adenhart. The saddest news is that he won the Cy Young in one of the 10 sims, and won 18-21 games in all 10 sims. Projections were run since he was on the Opening Day roster, despite his tragic death days later.
-- Ryan Howard. He wins MVP and HR title several times.
-- Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Any one of these three should bat cleanup for the Reds, not Brandon Phillips, with a toss-up between all three of them (not Phillips) reaching the 40 HRs that Dunn reached in each of his past three seasons. In one sim, Votto beat Ryan Howard for the HR title with 54 HRs in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.
-- Adam Dunn. Hits as many as 52 HR for the Nationals, but their pitching is so poor that it won't matter.
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