Quote:
Originally posted by SkyDog
That's a bold statement. Everyone said that Griffey would do so. He had 438 at the end of his 30-year-old season. Now, at age 33, he only has 469. At this point in his career, it looks more likely that he'll have a Luzinski-type early dropoff than it is that he'll break Aaron's record.
|
Well that's because Griffey was injured the past 3 seasons, if he wasn't and hit 40 home runs the past 3 years, he'd be at 558, and well on his way to 756 at the age of 33.
While I did say "should" and not "will", I just notice that they fall short by a lot because they retire too early. I don't think A-Rod would retire with 700 HR at the age of 36, knowing that if he played at least 2 more seasons, he could have the record easily. And don't give me anything about how his talent would be diminished at 36 because that's nuts.
I think the idea of the 6 or so years of diminishing talent, starting around 35, makes sense but the ratings reduction should be very minor from year to year. And the talent hits should occur in the offseason also. I think most players retire because they can't mentally deal with the reduction in talent from year to year. Only the mentally tough guys that can deal with it by working out more and hanging in there. Rickey Henderson is in great shape and refuses to believe he has lost any ability, but we all know he has. He's just very mentally tough and has stuck around longer.
So anyway, like I said, guys could chose when they retire (within these 6 or so years) depending on where they are in their contract, how well their team is doing, and if they are going for any milestones.