There is a problem with stealing in OOTP, as far as authentic gameplay is concerned, but I’m not sure what can be done about it (or whether it’s worth caring about). That problem has to do with the frequency of double steals. Note: I am slowly going through a 1960 league (for the third time) and comparing what happens in OOTP with what actually happened in the same real life games. Nothing magic about 1960, just what I chose for the purpose.
IRL (in 1960), double steals happened very rarely. Less often than squeeze plays, to use one comparison. Even a team with several good stealers would do this only once or twice during a season. In fact, a manager was more likely to call a double steal with men on first and third (the man on first serving as a decoy – a play not available in OOTP) than with men on first and second. In OOTP, double steals happen much more often – perhaps 10-15 times as often, for a team with good stealers, to throw a number out there (I only have a count from a small sample, so that’s just a guesstimate).
This leads to several questions: 1) why so rare IRL; 2) Is this an era-specific problem only (that is, do teams today double steal at a rate comparable to what happens in OOTP? I doubt it, but can’t be sure); and 3) what can be done, if anything, to control or reduce double stealing, without unduly reducing other types of stealing?
Whether or not to care about this, is a hard question to answer. On the one hand, I can’t say for sure that it’s distorting statistical behavior. Markus has said in another thread that the game is accurate in the proportion of 3rd base SBAs to SBAs overall. Can this be true for a 1960 league where double steals are so out-of-line with reality? Don’t know. It’s a bookkeeping problem to figure that out. So, I may just take it on faith that the stats are OK.
On the other hand, when I see double steals in which the player on first is someone who is an unlikely base stealer (a somewhat pokey catcher, for example), I have to wonder about how the decision to double steal is made in the game engine. Also, now that I know this is absurd behavior for a 1960 league, it’s hard to ignore. (A little knowledge is a dangerous thing …
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So, this is just a post to see if anyone has some cogent info or insight to offer.
FWIW