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Old 11-12-2008, 06:32 PM   #5
RchW
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thehef View Post
Thanks for the reply...

What is the known problem? Is there a thread for it?

Does the known problem include the situation where multiple supposedly equal levels of minors (in my case, 3 AAA leagues) would - in relation to major-league totals - be fine (my amer assoc), ok (my I.L.), and not close (my PCL)?

Given my numbers (batting avgs) above, any suggestions on which modifiers to tweak & how much, for each league? As I said, testing takes a long time & I'd rather not do a ton of it... And do you think I could tweak these numbers just once (maybe just before or after the first season), and then they'll adjust automatically and likely be ok moving forward?
You can't adjust anything unless you have a baseline era and then some results. I think Isura is doing that, I haven't read his mod post in detail yet.

I use 2007 data for my MLB and for the minors. The minor league data (see Minor League Baseball Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com) is incomplete so I decided to use MLB data for stuff like passed balls and wild pitches and set it up in proportion to the league size ie 12/30 for a 12 team minor league. This isn't perfect but its close enough for less important stats.

Once I had totals for the minors I normalized them to OOTP. Minor league totals in OOTP are high because there are no rainouts, no 7 inning double headers and no lost games (yes there are missing games). I normalize each minor league set of league totals to the number of AB in real life in 2007.

I set up a spread sheet to compare my baseline league totals to the game results each season and generate a modifier. Each off season I do this again (tedious) and adjust the modifier. For the minors some of the modifiers are huge, like 6.7 for HR in the Florida league.

It takes 3-4 seasons to titrate the swings in league totals as your initial modifier may overshoot or not make the desired total. I also tweak modifiers from time to time to generate more or less homeruns or steals etc.

See the attached spreadsheet. Please don't laugh, I'm not a pro at this stuff.

So far I'm extremely happy with this method. Results are so close that I don't change the modifiers every season any more. The game seems to have a natural fluctuation of 3-5%. If I want more or less than that I change the modifiers.

It would be really nice if we could enter league totals and modifiers into a csv file and have that picked up by the game. That would make the whole exercise easier.
Attached Files
File Type: xls League totals spreadsheet Rev 2070.xls (163.0 KB, 111 views)
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