Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange
A little back-of-the-envelope math:
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My math works out a little differently. What you calculated seems to be the 'use highest rested starter' formula. Using what I suggested above would yield something like:
Dividing the number of scheduled games by four would leave 38.5 average starts per pitcher before expansion and 40.5 per game after ('strict' rotation). Before dividing you should take out about ten games to account for doubleheaders, though in at least one of those seasons the Mets played twenty. (I believe a couple of years ago you posted something about the average number of scheduled and unscheduled doubleheaders per team per season in various eras.) That would leave 36 per starter before expansion and 38 after. From that you could take out scratches due to day-to-day injuries, time spent on the disabled list and the occaissional minor adjustment to match a particular pitcher up against a particular team, or to cause him to avoid a particular team.
I believe you'll find the numbers to be pretty reasonable.