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No one really knows anything except Markus.
I _assume_ based on some element of experience that the AI drafts based on current talents.
I _think_ talent hits and bumps are random, though there exists some data to show that later round picks are a little more likely to get talent bumps than early picks. However, if you reduce the size of talent changes, you are, by definition, making it harder for a guy with lower talents (drafted in later rounds) to ever be very good.
Of course, we really shouldn't use the word "talent" or "potential" for this parameter, despite the fact that OOTP uses it as its label. That parameter, when compared to a player's current rating is better thought of as "today's growth direction and rate" rather than "talent/potential." Blah, blah, blah...
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