Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
Data:
MLB - Only 19 players have been inducted in the MLB HoF that came through the draft, so that sample size is a little small. Some error could exist in it.
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Let me first say that RonCo's analysis was fantastic and very intriguing. And while this thread has mostly been about inaugural drafts, scouts matter very heavily in amateur drafts as well. I did some follow up work on where MLB Star players come from.
Here is a quick breakdown of the 2007 MLB All-star teams. I did not include closers or relievers, which you can feel free to argue with me about whether this makes sense to do or not. I noticed two trends (stats to follow). 1). Position players were very likely to have been first rounders, while pitchers were more "scattered" in their selection slot. (Peavy : 15th Round, Webb: 8th round). 2.) 1rst round players dominated.
With players such as Big Papi and Valdamir Guerrero being signed as free agents when they were entereing professional baseball, there were 41 allstars left that were drafted.
1rst Rounders : (20) 48.8%
2nd Rounders : (6) 14.6%
3rd Rounders : (3) 7.3%
4th+ : (12) 29.3%
There were only 4 position players drafted 4th or later, with 14 selected in the first round. There were 8 starting pitchers drafted 4th or later, versus 6 starting pitchers drafted in the first round.
So what does all of this mean? I'm not entirely sure, except to say that a vast majority of 2007 All-stars come from the first three rounds of the draft. (70%), and most of those come from the first round. Its pretty clear that first rounders dominate at the All-Star level, and therefore should be pretty easy to see who exactly these guys are, even if we cant tell which ones will become Prince Fielder and who will become Adrian Gonzalez.
Also, top flight SP seem to come from a more "shotgun" spread of rounds, which could possibly be because they are harder to scout or perhaps they are injured so much more often and seriously.