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sansterre · 06-20-2008, 02:48 PM

Completely an anomaly. My team (the Fresno Assassinators) went 18-7 in May, 10-17 in June, and 16-10 in July. Look at it like relief pitchers. Let's say that you have a guy with sub-par skills (9s in a 1-20 rating league) but over the course of the season he turns in a 2.50 ERA. Which do you trust? The ratings, because anything can happen in 80 innings. I've had 5 ERA relievers turn in 2.50 ERA seasons, and 3.00 ERA relievers turn in 5.50 ERA seasons. With small sample sizes, anything can happen. I have a guy who projects to hit 270/430/520, and for the month of May he hit 193/300/420. Then in June, he went 320/450/600.

The moral of the story is that in small sample sizes, anything can happen. If you're 17-3, that certainly suggests you're doing some things right. But there's no way that's your real team's performance level; not even the yankees have a realistic shot at a 85% winning percentage.

In terms of difficulty, I always hurt myself with money. My league was generated in a fantasy draft (fictional players/teams - non serpentine to force some talent pooling) that I didn't control. Once it was all over, I took over the team with the lowest owner budget, which was $55 million at the time. I had some decent years, now it's about $65 million with the highest in the league being $145 million. Point blank, every extra $10 million dollars your team has to play with is worth another 2-3 wins, depending on luck and skill. If you did a good job managing a 50 million dollar team (near break even W-L wise) then getting an additional 80 million should put you in the playoffs if not constant contention every year. The yankees aren't as easy to manage as one might think because of how messed up their long-term salaries are structured, but don't choose them and expect a real tussle to get into the playoffs.

06-20-2008, 02:48 PM	#11
sansterre Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 251	Completely an anomaly. My team (the Fresno Assassinators) went 18-7 in May, 10-17 in June, and 16-10 in July. Look at it like relief pitchers. Let's say that you have a guy with sub-par skills (9s in a 1-20 rating league) but over the course of the season he turns in a 2.50 ERA. Which do you trust? The ratings, because anything can happen in 80 innings. I've had 5 ERA relievers turn in 2.50 ERA seasons, and 3.00 ERA relievers turn in 5.50 ERA seasons. With small sample sizes, anything can happen. I have a guy who projects to hit 270/430/520, and for the month of May he hit 193/300/420. Then in June, he went 320/450/600. The moral of the story is that in small sample sizes, anything can happen. If you're 17-3, that certainly suggests you're doing some things right. But there's no way that's your real team's performance level; not even the yankees have a realistic shot at a 85% winning percentage. In terms of difficulty, I always hurt myself with money. My league was generated in a fantasy draft (fictional players/teams - non serpentine to force some talent pooling) that I didn't control. Once it was all over, I took over the team with the lowest owner budget, which was $55 million at the time. I had some decent years, now it's about $65 million with the highest in the league being $145 million. Point blank, every extra $10 million dollars your team has to play with is worth another 2-3 wins, depending on luck and skill. If you did a good job managing a 50 million dollar team (near break even W-L wise) then getting an additional 80 million should put you in the playoffs if not constant contention every year. The yankees aren't as easy to manage as one might think because of how messed up their long-term salaries are structured, but don't choose them and expect a real tussle to get into the playoffs. Last edited by sansterre; 06-20-2008 at 03:00 PM.