Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
Realize that the Tango studies show that the average 20 yo player in the major leagues should be growing in all categories.
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Well, Tango does have BB rates getting worse for pitchers from 20 to 22 before they start improving.
Still, Tango's studies show that the average 20 yo player who
stays in the Majors to age 21 grows in all categories. He's only looking at players who were in the Majors at both age 20 and age 21, and since most 20 yo players aren't very good yet, the only way a 20 yo will again play in the Majors at age 21 is if he improves. It's not at all surprising, then, that Tango "discovers" that 20 yos improve; it's a foregone conclusion, since any 20 yo who didn't improve wouldn't qualify for the study in the first place.
I put "discovers" in quotes because I don't think Tango would interpret his studies in the way I've just described, considering the care he takes to address selective sampling issues. All that said, I expect OOTP to perform pretty poorly in the experiments outlined in the posts above, though it would be interesting to know just how many players drop out of Tango's study from age 20 to 21 for comparison's sake.