Quote:
Originally Posted by injury log
I have never said that the issue is sample size. I said the exact opposite, post 136:
I don't know how I can say that more clearly.
If you want to apply Tango to the same population he did, the data is good. For big league players, OOTP should give results similar to Tango- I agree there. If you're extending it to a different population- minor leaguers, say- there's no reason to expect anything more than superficial similarity with Tango data. To use your polling example, it's akin to polling only those with >$10million annual incomes and hoping to get a read on how an election will play out. By looking only at Major Leaguers, you're only looking at guys who a priori have developed well enough to play in the Majors. That's a pretty extreme sample bias if you're hoping for data that will apply to all minor leaguers.
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OK. I missed your 136. I completely disagree with your analogy.
We're talking about essentially all physical skills. Speed, for example. It is not stretching too far to think that a major league baseball player's speed fades any more slowly than a AAA or semi-pro player's speed, or a football player's speed, or my speed. In fact, I would postulate that would be the case--were I to have continued to train as an athlete throughout my life, I'm guessing my speed would grow and peak and fade in a curve that looks like a majority of people's. I may be much slower than other people, but I would guess my peak years wouldn't be far from the "average" person. Similarly, strength. Or quickness ... two things it takes to create batspeed, which equates to home run power. I would guess I would peak in the range of 27 give or take, and that my peak would not be good enough to hit 30 homers in the majors. I see no reason to think normal, physically capable people wouldn't age in similar fashions (average, and standard deviations applicable of course).
The fact that the aging curves have not changed in any substantial fashion over the 100 years of pro baseball is an indicator (but not a proof) that my hypothesis is correct.