[mrbill]

I guess what I like about VORP is how it starts to approach the problem correctly, with many factors involved, as opposed to a very fixed formula stat like RBI.

RBI is only calculated by guys crossing the plate. It'll never be more than that. VORP at least takes into account position played and the park, while strongly distancing the calculation from the team around him and how they performed.

Yes, VORP doesn't take into account "leveraged" situations like our straw man "homerun with bases loaded vs homerun with no one on" case. But, it's easy to envision VORP+ that does weight situations based on their run-scoring potential. You'd have to penalize the person striking out with the bases loaded far more than someone striking out with no one on. You'd also weight hits in the 9th in close games over blowout hits.

Yes, it wouldn't be VORP anymore, but the approach in VORP is correct both for analyzing the value of past performance and other information to predict next year. RBI just leaves too much to the imagination.