Quote:
Originally Posted by ctorg
Yeah, that was kind of my point. VORP gives you how good a guy is relative to others at his position, but it doesn't necessarily tell you how much value he added to his team, because he's compared against an artificial construction: a replacement player. The player who actually replaces him (the backup) may be significantly better than a replacement player, which actually brings the amount of value that the starter adds to the team down.
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This is why David Ortiz's supporters had no legit argument for his MVP candidacy last season, in my opinion. If Alex Rodriguez got run over by a bus, the Yankees would have had Miguel Cairo or somebody out there. If Ortiz got smashed by an asteroid, the Sox would have been able to start a fairly good hitter in his place.
But yes, VORP's 'RP' isn't intended as a literal "replacement player". Again, VORP is intended to measure a player's skill -- in a vacuum -- at helping your team win baseball games. It doesn't (and shouldn't) impact Jim Thome's inherent value as a baseball player in '05-'06 that the Phillies have Ryan Howard waiting in the wings. It does (and, obviously, should) impact his real-world value to their team -- which is why they traded him.
But the fact that (numbers pulled out of arse for argument's sake) Thome had a (say) projected 55-VORP value that season and Howard had (say) projected at 50 doesn't mean Thome's Value Over (Actual) Replacement is 5. That's why VORP is a stat in a vacuum. He's a 55-VORP player, which is why the White Sox were willing to give up Rowand and Gio Gonzalez for him at the time (although now that I've come this far, bad example, because by acquiring Thome they were only upgrading at the DH position, likely not worth the downgrade from Roward to Brian Anderson, but that's neither here nor there. Anyway if they hadn't inexplicably resigned Konerko it'd have been a very different story).
Weighing your players and possible acquisitions against real-world alternatives is the job of an MLB GM. VORP's is to help demonstrate (by measuring against an arbitrary, imaginary constant) which of them, when placed on your team, would theoretically help you win more ballgames.