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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the dynasty forum
Posts: 2,318
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2018 ACS Preview
2018 Alaskan Championship Series Preview
Batting Stats
Kodiak Grizzlies
Fairbanks Goldpanners
Lineups vs RHP
Kodiak Grizzlies
1. McRae, SS (.253/.296/.370, 23-5 SB-CS)
2. Navarro, 2B (.290/.377/.485)
3. McGrath, C (.366/.395/.596, 8-0 SB-CS)
4. Samson, RF (.289/.392/.538)
5. Meehan, 1B (.290/.335/.473)
6. S. Okawa, LF (.297/.369/.452)
7. Bolduc, CF (.235/.292/.423)
8. De La Cruz, 3B (.301/.306/.434)
Fairbanks Goldpanners
1. Neal, CF (.274/.353/.387, 44-9 SB-CS)
2. Pike, RF (.360/.370/.439)
3. Alcock, C (.296/.368/.570)
4. King, 1B (.314/.368/.549)
5. Bartholomew, SS (.276/.349/.456)
6. G. Garrett, 2B (.357/.420/.610)
7. Burns, 3B (.291/.368/.482)
8. Corley, LF (.230/.332/.406)
Analysis
Kodiak has in the past had the advantage in terms of offensive firepower, but this season that advantage may be overturned. True, Kodiak outscored Fairbanks 624-564 this season, but Fairbanks' team OBP was better (.336 to .331).
Bob Adamson is also taking some major risks with the starting lineups for the Panners. Veteran first baseman Adam Joly, the former Bethel standout, was starter most of the year and hit well: .333/.431/.465. At the end of the season, however, he was designated for assignment, and rookie Dave King took his spot at first and in the cleanup slot. In addition, Adamson is sticking with Rob Corley in left over Elvis O'Halloran, last year's starter. In right field, Colin Garrett will be returning mid-series after missing most of the season. He has been working out with the team, and Adamson predicts he will be ready by Game 3 at the latest. Finally, slick-fielding shortstop Jeff Rowland will be riding pine, allowing Bartholomew to move from second to short, thus making room for Garry Garrett. The move gives the team an offensive boost but a defensive downgrade.
On the Kodiak side, rookie Miguel de la Cruz will be making the start at third base instead of top-notch glove man Bill Seguin. The reason? On August 1, Seguin tore a back muscle, putting him out of commission until next season. Despite his weak bat, Seguin was deadly on the basepaths, just the sort of guy you'd want for a late-inning situation in the championship series.
Overall, the lineup situation is virtually a wash, but Kodiak does have a valuable weapon in Mike Melton coming off the bench, and it's possible that rookie superstar Vincent McGrath could carry the team to victory on his shoulders.
Pitching Stats
Kodiak Grizzlies
Fairbanks Goldpanners
Rotations
Kodiak Grizzlies
1. Henry (12-6, 3.28)
2. Lockwood (6-9, 3.51)
3. Poor (6-8, 4.89)
CL. Boutillier (21 SV, 1.74)
Fairbanks Goldpanners
1. Cormack (16-4, 2.17)
2. Pond (9-3, 2.95)
3. Mihashi (6-9, 4.95)
CL. Funk (26 SV, 2.19)
Analysis
Fairbanks again retains an advantage in the rotation, but an attenuated one. Not many people think Pond is really all that much better than Lockwood, but Cormack is definitely a superstar in this league. He's been virtually untouchable this year.
Fairbanks' team ERA was 3.38 this year, while Kodiak's was 3.91. The different was actually greatest in the bullpen (3.06 to 4.29). However, Kodiak will have the solid Davis Murdock (12-3, 3.09) in the bullpen, or even as a starter if Poor does badly. Fairbanks can use Mark Deacon (7-8, 4.16) or Larry Corbitt (8-6, 3.38) in a similar way, though. However you slice it, Fairbanks should have the edge in pitching.
Conclusion
This is the third time that Cardinal and Adamson will match wits in the ACS. Thus far Adamson has gotten the better of the matchup. You might think that the Grizzlies players will be more geared up for this series than the spoiled-by-victory Goldpanners. On the other hand, their mental state might be more fragile if they got down early in the series. Also, Fairbanks will be looking to become the first team ever to "three-peat" in the Alaskan League.
Fairbanks defeated Kodiak in the regular season series 6-2, but as we saw last year, that doesn't necessarily mean much. The Goldpanners have a 1.5-game advantage in the overall standings and a 4.5-game advantage in Pythagorean record, but they also played in a much weaker division.
Experience has taught me not to bet against Fairbanks, although I anticipate another long, dramatic series. Prediction: Fairbanks in 7.
Last edited by Elendil; 02-19-2008 at 09:04 PM.
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