Quote:
Originally Posted by redsoxford
Even the 4RBI v 1RBI comparison is situationally vague.
What if Player A's 2nd AB is in the bottom of the 9th with a tie-score, and player B's 1st AB is in the 7th inning with a 10 run lead?
Who then is more valuable? I know that sabremetrics don't deal with that either but then neither does just raw stats like that.
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Actually it does. You are looking for WPA, Win Probability Added. It basically compares outcome of an at bat in the game situation (score, inning, out, runner's on base) with the historical outcome of the same situation. So if a team with a runner on third and two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning of a tie game resulted in that team winning 65% of the time (historically), and the player at bat hit a single, after which that team would (historically) win 75% of the time. The player is credited with a WPA added for the difference, and this is totalled over the course of the game and the season for each player.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win_Probability_Added
http://www.fangraphs.com/ - one of my favorite sites graphs this stat and does so live. It's a great way to see the drama of a baseball game at a glance...