Quote:
Originally Posted by Jestre
I find it humorous that the pro VORP'ers consider themselves enlightened and more knowledgeable than those of us that don't worship at that altar. VORP is only useful as a tool to measure an individuals "potential" value over a period of time. It does not measure that players "REAL" value in producing "REAL" runs. VORP may be useful to identify future player performance but is totally worthless in evaluating past "REAL" contributions to run production.
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This doesn't make any sense. VORP doesn't identify future performance any more than a crystal ball could. It doesn't have anything to do with potential. I really think you are misunderstanding what VORP is. VORP measures
INDIVIDUAL player value. RBI's are not an individual stat. The only RBI you can accumulate individually is a home run.
"REAL" runs can only be scored when people reach base. "REAL" runs are produced more frequently when a player's hits are worth more bases. That's on base percentage and slugging percentage.
An individual player cannot control who is on base in front of him and cannot control who drives in runs behind him if he happens to be on base. Individual players have absolutely no control over that. Why would you value a guy more for something he has nothing to do with? That just makes no sense.
Take leadoff hitters, for instance. Their RBI totals are generally pretty low. Is that because they're lousy hitters? No, it's because there aren't often runners already on base when they come up to bat. Should they be punished for that? I think not.
Then, take #8 hitters, for instance. Their run totals are generally lower than those guys in the #1 slot. For one, they don't get as many AB's. For two, the #9 hitter is generally the weakest hitter in the lineup. If you take a guy that gets on base 10 times in a week, and he's hitting #8, the pitcher behind him might get 1 or 2 hits, so he may only score 2 runs. If he was placed in the #1 or #2 slot, the #3 or #4 guys behind him will likely get 5 or 6 hits, resulting in that player scoring 5 or 6 runs. It has absolutely NOTHING to do with the hitter. He doesn't control what the guys around him do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jestre
If I have a choice of a player at a position that I know is going hit .300 score 60 runs and knock in 60 runs and draw 100 walks or a player that is going to hit .260 and score 100 runs and knock in 100 runs and draw 50 walks then I am going to take the latter player even though his VORP is lower, it would be "ignorant" not to.
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If you take that .260 hitter that draws 50 walks and put him in the #9 hole, he's not gonna have those 100 RBIs. If you put him in the #1 hole, he's not gonna score 100 runs. Because those numbers have nothing to do with him as an individual player.
That's really pretty fundamental to meaningful player analysis. Even if you don't want to worship at the VORP altar, this should at least be really easy to see.
Forget VORP and RC/27 and all that for a minute. Can't you at least see that RBIs and Runs are absolutely worthless stats given the examples and explanations above?