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Elendil · 01-06-2008, 02:46 PM

2017 Alaskan Championship Series Preview

For the first time ever, the Alaskan Championship Series will feature the same opponents for a second consecutive year. Last year, the Goldpanners won their first Alaskan championship in dramatic fashion, downing the Grizzlies in a 20-inning sixth game to clinch the title. You can bet that the Grizzlies and their fans are relishing the chance at a little revenge. The goat of the game six loss, former Panner Conrad Poor, is in the Kodiak rotation for this series and probably relishes this chance at redemption more than anyone else.

Team Stats

Kodiak Grizzlies

Team Batting Stats
Pos	Player	Age	G	GS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP
P	Bill Ausenhus	22	35	2	8	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.250	.250	.500	.750	0.7
CF	Gregg Bolduc	25	87	85	310	38	83	16	7	8	52	4	2	18	34	.268	.307	.442	.749	13.6
1B	*Tanner Bourque	35	6	3	14	3	3	0	0	2	7	0	0	4	1	.214	.389	.643	1.032	1.2
P	Stuart Boutillier	22	43	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	.250	.250	.250	.500	0.1
P	*Ben Bow	25	9	0	3	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.667	.667	1.000	1.667	0.7
LF	Kelyn Brisson	22	61	5	73	14	25	7	2	1	16	0	0	5	9	.342	.388	.534	.922	7.9
CF	Mike Collette	33	90	48	209	40	53	17	3	9	32	0	0	22	32	.254	.328	.493	.820	8.9
1B	Mike Gaston	31	72	10	70	11	24	5	0	1	10	4	1	1	7	.343	.342	.457	.800	4.8
P	*Steven Henry	26	24	24	49	4	9	3	0	0	7	0	0	1	10	.184	.192	.245	.437	1.2
P	#Bob Killy	24	14	0	6	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.333	.333	.500	.833	0.5
LF	*Terry Kuhn	36	41	2	41	8	8	2	1	1	8	0	0	5	12	.195	.277	.366	.642	-2.5
P	*Vincent Lafrenière	25	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0.0
P	Sam Lockwood	25	23	23	53	3	6	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	12	.113	.113	.151	.264	-0.4
P	*Fred McBean	25	11	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.1
1B	#Al Meehan	22	98	81	345	48	97	31	10	6	59	5	14	28	51	.281	.338	.481	.819	12.2
P	Joe Mews	23	37	6	12	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.250	.250	.333	.583	0.7
C	Karl Morrisey	26	89	89	370	67	124	22	1	11	60	0	1	38	52	.335	.397	.489	.886	42.6
P	Davis Murdock	23	18	18	43	4	6	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	10	.140	.140	.163	.302	-0.0
P	Tim Myers	24	16	16	30	0	5	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	.167	.161	.200	.361	0.3
2B	Mark Navarro	26	98	98	386	50	104	26	2	6	51	0	0	43	56	.269	.341	.394	.735	12.6
LF	*Stanley Okawa	26	101	91	394	69	118	18	6	12	51	7	3	47	42	.299	.373	.467	.840	24.7
LF	*Mark Oxford	22	22	9	52	6	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	2	8	.231	.259	.327	.586	-2.8
P	*Conrad Poor	23	19	19	44	7	8	3	0	1	4	0	1	0	6	.182	.182	.318	.500	1.0
RF	*Dave Reeve	34	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0.0
2B	*Jeff Rowland	24	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.3
C	Tim Rowsell	30	94	42	187	14	38	10	1	1	26	0	0	13	24	.203	.252	.283	.536	-14.4
RF	Michael Samson	24	88	88	345	79	99	24	4	23	72	3	0	62	30	.287	.393	.580	.973	40.4
P	David Schneider	25	29	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.2
3B	Bill Seguin	28	97	68	285	48	71	17	3	6	21	30	10	22	39	.249	.313	.393	.706	10.4
P	Todd Simmons	28	39	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0.0
SS	Stan Smart	27	101	99	364	71	109	23	5	14	73	1	0	42	60	.299	.377	.505	.882	38.7
SS	Scott Wilkinson	32	92	46	182	29	46	16	6	2	10	5	1	19	23	.253	.325	.440	.765	9.9
P	*Connor Withers	24	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0.0
	Team Totals	26.3	1563	972	3886	618	1058	249	52	105	574	59	33	372	532	.272	.336	.444	.781	212.5
* - bats left-handed, # - switch hits, blank - bats right-handed

Team Pitching Stats
Player	Age	W	L	Pct	G	GS	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
Bill Ausenhus	22	4	3	0.571	35	2	2	57.0	52	22	4	23	50	3.47	10.3
Stuart Boutillier	22	2	6	0.250	43	0	25	47.0	43	16	4	17	59	3.06	10.6
Ben Bow	25	0	2	0.000	9	0	0	9.0	9	5	1	4	13	5.00	0.2
Steven Henry	26	10	6	0.625	24	24	0	156.1	115	53	15	46	151	3.05	35.4
Bob Killy	24	4	0	1.000	14	0	1	27.0	21	8	1	4	17	2.67	7.1
Vincent Lafrenière	25	0	0	0.000	2	0	0	2.2	2	1	0	2	1	3.38	0.5
Sam Lockwood	25	9	6	0.600	23	23	0	159.0	154	61	10	31	82	3.45	28.7
Fred McBean	25	1	0	1.000	11	0	0	14.0	15	8	4	11	9	5.14	-0.2
Joe Mews	23	8	4	0.667	37	6	1	69.0	72	26	6	22	35	3.39	13.0
Davis Murdock	23	6	3	0.667	18	18	0	120.0	117	50	9	33	94	3.75	17.7
Tim Myers	24	7	2	0.778	16	16	0	98.2	116	47	12	25	47	4.29	8.4
Conrad Poor	23	10	6	0.625	19	19	0	140.2	127	66	9	55	107	4.22	12.8
David Schneider	25	2	1	0.667	29	0	1	42.0	37	16	3	15	32	3.43	7.8
Todd Simmons	28	4	2	0.667	39	0	1	41.2	57	21	9	15	35	4.54	2.2
Connor Withers	24	0	0	0.000	3	0	0	3.2	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	2.2
Team Totals	24.3	67	41	0.620	322	108	31	987.2	937	400	87	303	735	3.64	156.7
* - throws left-handed, blank - throws right-handed

Fairbanks Goldpanners

Team Batting Stats
Pos	Player	Age	G	GS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP
C	Eric Alcock	25	92	91	378	61	104	19	2	11	45	0	0	30	27	.275	.329	.423	.753	14.6
RF	*Matthew Bartholomew	24	89	86	270	36	82	15	1	9	46	1	1	33	42	.304	.376	.467	.842	13.1
SS	Aaron Boudreau	33	34	16	56	4	12	1	0	0	4	1	0	5	11	.214	.286	.232	.518	-3.1
3B	Toby Burns	30	103	103	381	69	118	16	6	20	69	10	2	42	57	.310	.377	.541	.918	41.5
P	Leo Caulfield	24	30	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.0
P	Larry Corbitt	29	21	21	54	2	6	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10	.111	.111	.111	.222	-0.7
P	John Cormack	27	24	24	62	1	4	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15	.065	.065	.065	.129	-1.9
P	Mark Deacon	27	23	23	58	3	9	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	16	.155	.153	.190	.342	0.4
RF	John Dugles	28	82	22	118	16	31	3	3	4	27	0	0	9	14	.263	.313	.441	.753	0.0
P	Jon Funk	23	34	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.1
2B	*Anthony Garant	24	61	45	184	31	48	12	3	3	17	13	2	21	16	.261	.340	.408	.747	6.3
LF	*Colin Garrett	28	101	101	399	72	111	21	8	17	75	11	3	40	60	.278	.342	.499	.841	16.0
2B	Garry Garrett	22	56	55	233	35	76	7	1	7	28	0	0	15	22	.326	.368	.455	.823	13.9
P	Dave Imus	23	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0.0
1B	Adam Joly	36	105	105	394	68	106	21	0	13	56	5	1	63	58	.269	.377	.421	.798	13.7
1B	Dave King	24	54	2	49	8	20	4	1	2	14	0	0	5	5	.408	.463	.653	1.116	9.6
P	Duncan Lacey	37	13	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	.333	.000	.333	0.1
P	#Silas Lortie	21	3	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.4
P	Doug Miles	34	19	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.1
P	Brad Morris	35	32	0	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.250	.250	.250	.500	0.2
P	Leif Morris	33	16	16	47	7	10	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	8	.213	.208	.234	.442	1.2
CF	#Camden Neal	24	101	101	415	78	113	19	7	7	52	41	6	48	50	.272	.347	.402	.749	22.8
P	Eugene Pond	29	21	21	44	4	9	3	0	1	5	0	0	1	11	.205	.213	.341	.554	2.0
LF	Miles Pyke	24	61	15	82	7	19	2	1	0	13	0	0	11	14	.232	.319	.280	.600	-5.1
RF	Doug Riley	31	24	0	25	4	6	2	0	1	4	0	0	3	4	.240	.345	.440	.785	0.0
SS	Brett Small	26	104	104	409	62	123	32	1	11	60	11	6	41	52	.301	.363	.465	.827	26.9
LF	Dave Squires	26	17	1	17	2	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	2	.118	.167	.294	.461	-2.2
C	George Taylor	26	57	17	77	10	21	6	0	0	11	0	0	1	13	.273	.278	.351	.629	-0.3
CF	*Gary Yohemas	27	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.0
	Team Totals	27.6	1381	972	3767	580	1032	186	34	107	543	93	21	370	513	.274	.339	.427	.766	168.5
* - bats left-handed, # - switch hits, blank - bats right-handed

Team Pitching Stats
Player	Age	W	L	Pct	G	GS	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	VORP
Leo Caulfield	24	3	3	0.500	30	0	0	36.2	32	20	5	15	44	4.91	1.5
Larry Corbitt	29	11	7	0.611	21	21	0	159.1	150	54	11	49	98	3.05	39.4
John Cormack	27	13	3	0.813	24	24	0	182.0	147	45	7	33	171	2.23	61.6
Mark Deacon	27	13	8	0.619	23	23	0	181.2	179	66	15	57	118	3.27	40.1
Jon Funk	23	4	3	0.571	34	0	23	36.0	37	9	1	12	26	2.25	12.0
Dave Imus	23	0	0	0.000	1	0	0	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	0.00	1.2
Duncan Lacey	37	0	0	0.000	13	0	1	25.1	12	5	2	4	17	1.78	10.0
Silas Lortie	21	0	1	0.000	3	3	0	21.2	28	11	0	8	10	4.57	1.5
Doug Miles	34	1	1	0.500	19	0	0	24.1	19	7	1	3	19	2.59	7.3
Brad Morris	35	7	2	0.778	32	0	4	48.1	45	11	2	15	33	2.05	17.3
Leif Morris	33	9	4	0.692	16	16	0	121.0	126	49	8	49	62	3.64	22.0
Eugene Pond	29	11	4	0.733	21	21	0	133.1	126	60	15	37	112	4.05	18.0
Team Totals	28.5	72	36	0.667	237	108	28	971.2	903	337	67	282	711	3.12	231.9
* - throws left-handed, blank - throws right-handed

Clearly, Kodiak is the better hitting team, while Fairbanks is the better pitching/defensive team. In fact, Fairbanks has one of the best starting rotations in league history (3.21 ERA), and their bullpen is even better (2.71 ERA). Kodiak, meanwhile, counts on three main offensive weapons: Michael Samson, Stan Smart, and Karl Morrisey, but the rest of their lineup is also pretty potent.

Lineups

Kodiak Grizzlies

vs RHP:

1. S. Okawa, LF - .299/.373/.467
2. M. Navarro, 2B - .269/.341/.394
3. K. Morrisey, C - .335/.397/.489
4. M. Samson, RF - .287/.393/.580
5. A. Meehan, 1B - .281/.338/.481
6. S. Smart, 3B - .299/.377/.505
7. G. Bolduc, CF - .268/.307/.442
8. S. Wilkinson, SS - .253/.325/.440

vs LHP:

1. S. Wilkinson, SS
2. M. Navarro, 2B
3. K. Morrisey, C
4. M. Samson, RF
5. A. Meehan, 1B
6. S. Okawa, LF
7. M. Collette, CF
8. S. Smart, 3B

Fairbanks Goldpanners

vs RHP:

1. C. Neal, CF - .272/.347/.402, 41-6 SB-CS
2. G. Garrett, 2B - .326/.368/.455
3. E. Alcock, C - .275/.329/.423
4. C. Garrett, LF - .278/.342/.499
5. M. Bartholomew, RF - .304/.376/.467
6. A. Joly, 1B - .269/.377/.421
7. T. Burns, 3B - .310/.377/.541
8. B. Small, SS - .301/.363/.465

vs LHP:

1. C. Neal, CF
2. G. Garrett, 2B
3. A. Joly, 1B
4. E. Alcock, C
5. C. Garrett, LF
6. T. Burns, 3B
7. B. Small, SS
8. M. Bartholomew, RF

Rotations

Kodiak Grizzlies

1. S. Henry - 3.05 ERA
2. S. Lockwood - 3.45 ERA
3. C. Poor - 4.22 ERA
CL. S. Boutillier - 3.06 ERA, 25 SV, 11.3 K/9

Fairbanks Goldpanners

1. J. Cormack - 2.23 ERA
2. E. Pond - 4.05 ERA
3. M. Deacon - 3.27 ERA
CL. J. Funk - 2.25 ERA, 23 SV, 6.5 K/9

Injuries

RP Ben Bow (Kodiak), back spasms

Managers

Kodiak: Ron Cardinal, 478-350 all-time AKL record (2007-2017), 3 playoff appearances, 2 championships

Fairbanks: Bob Adamson, 485-571 all-time AKL record (2007-2017), 1 playoff appearance, 1 championship

Analysis

The two teams met eight times this year, and the Grizzlies owned the season series, winning six and losing two. However, Fairbanks was five games ahead in the standings, and the Panners' pitching advantage over the Grizzlies is greater than the Grizzlies' hitting advantage over the Panners. Additionally, the Denali Division was actually a bit tougher than the Seward this year.

Statistically, then, Fairbanks should take it, especially with home field advantage, but one has to wonder whether they want it as much as the Grizzlies do this year. I think the Grizzlies come out strong. If they take the first couple of games, they'll have the confidence to win the series.

Prediction: Grizzlies in 6.