Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift
My experience is that ratings drops and raises appear to be closely tied to how a player performs. In that respect, you want to get 18 year olds in a low minor league system or else they're going to post 10.00 ERAs and die on you. That can be problematic if you're running with a shallow minor league system.
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This has been my experience as well. Even guys who "stagnated" and stayed at, say, AA until they were 25 or so posting mediocre stats, received ratings boosts and turned into good players at the ML level if they had a year at AA where they had great stats. This isn't the norm, but it's happened often enough to make it part of my strategy.
All in all, I promote/demote based on current ratings (regardless of potential ratings) and stats. I find keeping guys at a level where they are producing increases the likelihood they become useful at the ML level courtesy of a ratings boost. Of course, I handle my top prospects with extreme care when compared to a guy who has middling potential ratings.