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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the dynasty forum
Posts: 2,318
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2015 ACS Preview
2015 Alaskan Championship Series Preview
Batting Stats
Lineups
Peninsula vs RHP:
1. Livingston, CF
2. Johnson, 1B
3. Osborn, LF
4. Leighton, 3B
5. Horswill, RF
6. Sabin, 2B
7. Gaston, SS
8. Russo, C
The Oilers acquired Gary Johnson, the former Fairbanks star, off waivers less than a month ago from the Glacier Pilots, who had played him in the Training League most of the year! The team no longer has Arnie Heard, who was dealt for O'Feeney, and O'Feeney himself will be unavailable for the series due to an injury. Russo will be playing against his former team.
Juneau vs RHP:
1. Seguin, 3B
2. Matkin, SS
3. Okawa, LF
4. Corson, C
5. MacNeill, RF
6. Theriault, CF
7. Bedford, 1B
8. Collette, 2B
The Senators have only player in their lineup with an OPS below .800: Matkin. No injuries.
Evaluation
The Senators are the highest-scoring team of all time, with 685 runs. However, you can argue that the 2010 Nicks, who scored 643 runs when league ERA was 0.80 points lower, are still the best offensive club of all time. Juneau's team line is .291/.366/.474, and they also tied for the league lead in stolen bases with 80 (but were caught an excessive 40 times).
Peninsula is third in the league in runs scored with 654. Their team line is .279/.348/.461, and they have a reasonable 69-26 SB-CS.
Overall, you have to give the edge to the Senators.
Pitching Stats
Rotations
Peninsula:
1. Mays (LHP)
2. Wither (RHP)
3. Romanov (RHP)
Juneau:
1. Sonier (RHP)
2. Pena (RHP)
3. Northeast (RHP)
Evaluation
When you stack these rotations up against each other, the Senators clearly have an edge, despite Louis Mays' remarkable comeback after moving from Chugiak. (Mays of course had his best years with Juneau.)
For the whole season, Juneau had a team ERA of 3.76, 2nd in the league, and allowed 479 runs. They had a spectacular team BABIP of .258, reflecting solid team defense in both the infield and outfield.
Peninsula had a team ERA of 4.56 and gave up 588 runs. Their team BABIP was .294, right at league average.
In a comparison of the closers, Juneau's Bill Colwill is much better than Peninsula's Braedon MacDonald.
Essentially, then, Juneau has a big advantage in pitching and defense.
Coaching & Intangibles
Peninsula won the season series, 5-3, but that doesn't necessarily mean much. Juneau had a much better record in a division that was stronger than Peninsula's.
Juneau's manager Lindsay Maloney still doesn't get a lot of respect around the league, despite two straight .700+ winning percentage seasons. GM Ron Miller gets a lot more of the credit for having put together a talented team.
Peninsula's Bill Forsyth, by contrast, is widely hailed as a managerial genius for turning around the Oilers in two short years.
The Senators have a lot more ACS experience on their squad. Second baseman Zander Sabin, backup catcher Ryan Ward, and reliever Doug Miles are the only present-day Oilers who were also on the 2010 championship squad - and none of them have been on the team continuously since then.
Prediction
The Senators should, by all logic, take this in a walk. But the last time the Oilers made it to the ACS, they were heavy underdogs to the Nicks, but won it all anyway. So you never know what will happen, but I will go with Juneau in 5.
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