If the six people who voted last year and haven't voted so far repeat their voters, none of the players on held over from last year's ballot would get in. Ward would be a vote short, Liao two votes short, Makris 3 votes short, and Luther 4 votes short. None of the rest would have a chance - Stell had two of the voters left, and even turning the other four would leave him short.
3/1-of-3 Ward
Meaning - Ward had 3 of the voters last time around, and would need to turn just 1-of-3 among the people who didn't vote for him. Tom probably needs to lobby Cards Frank. Chowbeng is the most "Small Hall" of voters since me back in the old days. Medicore guys like Pops McAuliffe and Harry Finley getting in caused me to lower my standards drastically.
I also don't think Rudel will vote for Ward based on the discussion in the thread last year - I don't think he was swayed, but I could be reading that wrong.
4/2-of-2 Liao
Liao could get Badluck's vote this time around. Hard to tell. But he won't get the other - Chris was pretty clear on what he thought of Liao, and not likely to change that. Liao is likely going to need Chris to miss the vote. :P
2/3-of-4 Makris
I don't anticipate Hank getting Chowbeng's vote. That would leave Badluck, Rudel and Cards Frank to swing. Not impossible... Rudel is likely the key there.
2/4-of-4 Luther
Not going to happen. Would need:
(a) Chowbeng & Chris to miss the vote + Badluck & Cards Frank voting for him
(b) Chowbeng & Chirs & Badluck/Frank miss the vote + Badluck/Frank voting for him
Or Chowbeng could surprise me and flip his vote, which changes the math.
Of the new players, BDLG would need to get on all six ballots.
That's the math. Someone could come out of the woodworks to change things up.
John