[Elendil]

2014 Preview



The Glacier Pilots look pretty stacked this year. Their young players have improved, and they made some good offseason moves. However, their starting pitching is still a mess.

Their main position player stars are likely to be: catcher Tim Rowsell (for his defense, not hitting); first baseman Tim Arnold (.277/.376/.458 last year); third baseman Sherman Ferris (career .270/.356/.369, moved from shortstop); Scott Bradley (career .288/.355/.468, moved from third base); left fielder Keith MacNeill (Lower 48 guy signed in April, 28 years old); center fielder Elvis O'Halloran (.305/.388/.523 last year); and right fielder Wynn Dunsmore (career .302/.385/.522).

Their starting rotation looks bad, with Ernie Geldart at the top (career 3.72 ERA). Closer Floyd Arrington may be the best in the league now (even better than Yuke). He put up a 2.32 ERA last year.

Predicted finish: 1st in the Seward.



The Bucs are essentially in a rebuild - or at least, they should be. Their big market tends to protect the team from making hard decisions, which might be worse for them in the long run.

They really have no great hitters, but 24-year-old right fielder Mark O'Feeney may be on the verge. He hit .307/.361/.460 last year.

Their rotation is solid and experienced. Their number one starter is the veteran Jack Hatt (career 3.43 ERA), followed by Jeff Simmons (career 4.26 ERA), Tom Pick (career 4.62 ERA), Herb Prat (4.39 as a rookie last year), and Jeremy House (a rookie, he won the Training League Pitcher of the Year Award last year).

Predicted finish: 3rd in the Seward. Crappy division.



The Mushers look pretty bad this year, especially at certain positions. Their top hitting star will probably be Adam Joly, last year's Hitter of the Year (career .321/.413/.531), but Sean Heath is also superb (career .303/.399/.540). Catcher Greg Britton (career .273/.315/.462) improved last year and is still just 27.

The starting rotation is downright bad, led by Shane Russell, 23 years old but in his 4th season (career 4.16 ERA). Beyond him there are a bunch of rookies whose potential is really anyone's guess. Closer William Reid is 20 years old and in his second year.

Predicted finish: 5th in the Seward.



Financial strictures prevented Chugiak from improving in the offseason, and they could well be challenged for the pennant by the Glacier Pilots. On offense they hope to benefit from catcher Dave Lepine (.306/.348/.528 last year and a defensive wizard), third baseman Brett Small (.279/.355/.481 last year as a rookie), left fielder Phil Botfield (career .313/.374/.509), and right fielder Francis Ikarashi (career .258/.391/.358).

Pitching as always should be a strength, once you control for park effects. They hope Money Mihashi has enough left in him for a couple more great years and he will be the ace (career 2.98 ERA). Other pitching stars include 36-year-old Martin Gagnon (career 2.81 ERA) and 30-year-old Louis Mays (career 3.02 ERA). A 35-year-old Ed Staitie will be their closer (career 3.55 ERA). Seven weeks into the season they could get Ryan Dye back.

Predicted finish: 2nd in the Seward.



The Goldpanners do have some young talent, but they certainly didn't do anything to improve in the offseason, and they are still in a deep rebuilding cycle.

On offense they expect key contributions from third baseman Mark Beach (career .342/.382/.413 hitter, still just 21) and right fielder Colin Garrett (.301/.360/.513 as a rookie last year).

On the pitching side they hope to get solid performances from starters Tim Myers (career 4.79 ERA, still just 21 and improving) and Sawao Kawano (career 3.53 ERA, 22 years old). Closer Walter Teranishi, age 20, could become dominant this year (3.05 ERA last year).

Predicted finish: 6th in the Denali (but maybe a little better this time).



Juneau looks to be in a good position to contend once again. On offense they have first baseman Ralph Collette (.283/.364/.488 career), shortstop Gates Matkin (.293/.345/.391 career, age 23), left fielder Tommy Okawa (.284/.415/.419 last year with AGP), and center fielder Olivier Theriault (career .257/.331/.412, good defender).

As far as pitching goes, Juneau has a great top four, with Anthony Sonier (career 3.41, just 24), Scott Northeast (career 3.38, entering his 8th season but still just 27), Don Taggart (career 3.15, 29 years old), and Cisco Pena (4.17 ERA as a rookie with Kodiak last year). Closer Bill Colwill (career 3.87 ERA) has been inconsistent.

Predicted finish: 2nd in the Denali.



Kodiak might be a little better this year, but they're still going through painful adjustments caused by bad financial decisions.

On offense they feature catcher Bob Russo (.270/.349/.444 for his career and excellent defensively), second baseman Dale Robison (.272/.349/.426 for his career, still just 24), and shortstop Scott Wilkinson (.251/.341/.432 career, decent fielder).

The starting rotation is of dubious value. Twenty-year-old Joe Mews will be their #1 starter, so that tells you something. Closer Cole Walters has never been dominant (career 3.96 ERA).

Predicted finish: 4th in the Seward.



The Miners look unlikely to take the Denali again this year, but anything can happen in this league.

Their top hitting stars are 42-year-old catcher Pierre-Alexandre Langlois (.317/.416/.527 career), second baseman Toby Burns (27-year-old kid from the Lower 48 who signed on recently), center fielder Bryce Payne, recently signed to a 7-year extension (career .283/.333/.408, slightly subpar defensively), and right fielder Kisei Suto (career .316/.399/.477, ready to emerge from the obscurity of Whitehorse, just 24).

Mat-Su's pitching is sketchy. The rotation is headed up by John Dewitt (career 3.89 ERA), followed by Spud Hill (career 3.91 ERA but clearly in decline). Other has-beens (Dave Gibbon, Pete Strelioff, and Thierry Tremblay) round out the rotation. A 41-year-old Bryant Brenton starts the season as closer, but no one expects him to get many hitters out.

Predicted finish: 4th in the Denali.



North Pole has made a few good moves over the past two years, but just enough to keep them in the middle of the pack in this competitive division.

Their main offensive stars are second baseman John Abston (career .299/.363/.544) and third baseman Ken Swerdlow (career .304/.370/.451).

If their pitchers can stay healthy, the Nicks can compete with anyone. Ace Eugene Pond (career 3.24 ERA, 25 years old) leads an elite rotation with Chip Becker (career 3.44 ERA), Chance Major (career 3.20 ERA), and Larry Corbitt (3.78 ERA in his second season last year). Jack Skinner fills out the fifth slot. Closer Loren Coleman is 38 years old but posted one of his best years last year (2.61 ERA, 52 IP, 13 SV).

Predicted finish: 3rd in the Denali.



The Oilers look pretty bad this year, but their division - apart from the top two - is also bad, so you never know what they might do. They have no real superstars, but shortstop Walt Duff, left fielder Dave Bonnar, and right fielder Rob Corley are recognizable names.

Pitching kept them in it last year, but who knows how long Mike Rancourt and Bryan Kendall will keep bringing it? Both of them really tailed off in the second half last year. Closer Braedon MacDonald is decent but will never be dominant.

Predicted finish: 6th in the Seward.



Sitka has put together a well-rounded team and by and large kept them together. It's questionable whether it will be enough to contend, but I'll go out on a limb and call them to take it this year.

They have solid players at almost every position, but their only recognizable star is shortstop Jack Hussey (career .321/.405/.404, great fielder, still just 22).

In terms of pitching they have Al Simmons (career 3.63 ERA, 25 years old), Harvey Romanov (4.70 career but a 23-year-old control pitcher who should improve some), and Will Blain (career 3.47 ERA). Closer Brad Morris has usually been solid (career 3.24 ERA, 95 SV).

Predicted finish: 1st in the Denali.



The Yukoners let some of their best young players get away and look set to go into decline. However, they still have some big names: first baseman Zander Sabin (.262/.337/.405, awesome fielder), second baseman Charley Logan (career .281/.397/.384), and center fielder John Dugles (career .291/.357/.398, still 25).

The pitching rotation is suspect. In a move that smacks of desperation, the team has put Ron Yuke into the rotation! He has never started before. Of course, they still have John Mack (career 3.53 ERA, now 32) and Rick Sonier (career 3.48 ERA, now 30). Beyond that, nothing. Philippe Bisaillon is likely to get rocked as closer.

Predicted finish: 5th in the Denali. However, with luck they could leapfrog Mat-Su and North Pole. I don't see them contending with Sitka or Juneau, though.