Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift
Another factor to consider, OFG, is that good pitchers are more likely to get 2-strike counts on their opponents than bad pitchers are. I'm not sure that demonstrating that there is a slightly lower chance to hit HRs on an 0-2 count compared with a 2-0 is necessarily a sign that it's actually easier, everything else taken into account, to hit a HR on the latter count.
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A good pitcher with good control, as I posted many posts above. A pitcher with the best stuff in the world but having difficulty finding the strike zone might find himself in plenty of 3-1 counts.
Again, I just want to question the validity of the overall thesis that once a batter puts the ball in play the outcome is random and the specific pitcher doesn't matter, it's the same for any and all pitchers. I disagree ONLY to the extent of control and counts. I do agree hard hit balls are totally random. However, I STILL BELIEVE, pitcher's CAN and DO impact that randomness through control. Pitching ahead in the count, pitching to specific quadrants of the strikezone, and "forcing" weaker contact. And I think DIPS is either arguing against that or not taking into account, OR I'm flat out wrong. And, judging from my track record, if I were betting man, I'd bet on the latter of those three. But before I throw in the towel on my lifelong beliefs, I'd like to see a little more detailed data.