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Elendil · 08-13-2007, 06:43 PM

On the last day of the season, the Denali Division was still technically up for grabs. If North Pole lost both games of their doubleheader at Whitehorse, while Mat-Su won both games of their doubleheader versus Sitka, then the two teams would tie for the lead. Juneau was out of the picture, having dropped too far in July and early August. Sitka had been eliminated the day before.

In the afternoon games, Sitka tore up Mat-Su, 11-3, ending their chances, while North Pole fell to Whitehorse, 5-2. In the evening games, Sitka held off Mat-Su again, 5-3, and North Pole nailed down a 6-3 win.

In the Seward Division, the Jets ran away with it, setting the team wins record in the AKL, and finishing 19 games above the second-place teams (the Bucs, Glacier Pilots, and Grizzlies all tied with 52-56 records).

So the North Pole Nicks were returning to the Alaskan Championship Series for the first time since 2008, when they won it, while the Jets would see postseason action for the first time in their history.

Team Comparisons

Lineups

C - Bob Russo (ERC) (.253/.338/.451) vs. Alan Sellick (NPN) (.290/.379/.560) - NICKS+ (Russo is awesome defensively, but the edge still goes to the Nicks)
1B - Stanton Ryan (ERC) (.312/.368/.421) vs. Edison Dwyer (NPN) (.288/.360/.577) - NICKS+
2B - John Hauk (ERC) (.234/.346/.354) vs. John Abston (NPN) (.307/.380/.560) - NICKS++ (Hauk is better defensively, but still no contest)
3B - Luke York (ERC) (.291/.340/.474) vs. Dennis Roy (NPN) (.166/.282/.223) - JETS++ (York is battling a calf injury that could see him replaced with Jonathan Bertrand, see below)
SS - Mike Gaston (ERC) (.275/.317/.408, 23-3 SB-CS) vs. Leonard Marshall (NPN) (.283/.337/.390) - JETS+ (Gaston is noticeably better defensively)
LF - Phil Botfield (ERC) (.308/.383/.550) vs. Keith Willerton (NPN) (.257/.310/.339) - JETS++
CF - Jimmy Williams (ERC) (.287/.369/.590) vs. Dominique Gaudet (NPN) (.313/.411/.572) - NICKS+ (Williams has a pinched nerve in his neck that could affect his play)
RF - John Horswill (ERC) (.285/.373/.450) vs. Bob Horton (NPN) (.325/.396/.586) - NICKS+

Injuries: RF Connor Poapst (NPN) (.267/.364/.483) has been out most of the year and will not make it back in time to play.

Overall: Chugiak outscored North Pole 591-586 this year, but in an apparently weaker division. Also, much of that production came from their bench. North Pole has a significant team OPS advantage (.794 vs. .771) and has out-homered Chugiak 161-117. That's an amazing number of home runs. Advantage: NICKS.

Rotations

1. Louis Mays (ERC) (162 IP, 8 HR, 48 BB, 110 K, 2.38 ERA) vs. Chip Becker (NPN) (181 IP, 12 HR, 40 BB, 110 K, 2.88 ERA) - EVEN (tough comparison, Becker gets an edge for endurance, but Mays has been more dominant over his career)
2. Eugene Pond (ERC) (142 IP, 13 HR, 33 BB, 105 K, 3.30 ERA) vs. Chance Major (NPN) (141 IP, 10 HR, 45 BB, 154 K, 3.01 ERA) - NICKS+ (another difficult comparison, but Major's amazing stuff is incomparable, and he also has a slight endurance advantage over Pond)
3. Monzaemon Mihashi (ERC) (138 IP, 10 HR, 36 BB, 74 K, 2.61 ERA) vs. Tom Pick (NPN) (165 IP, 21 HR, 44 BB, 57 K, 4.63 ERA) - JETS++ (Mihashi is a converted reliever but still adds much more value than Pick)

Overall: Probably a slight advantage to the Jets. The series format favors the Nicks, because they don't have to use their horrid #4 and #5 starters.

Bullpens

Chugiak will have usual starters Ryan Dye (9-7, 2.77) and Charles Pretty (9-5, 4.45) in the 'pen, and can also rely on one of the most dominant closers in the game, Jason Hilton (28 SV, 6.7 K/9, 3.05 ERA). Besides Dye, they can go to Ronald Hawk (34 IP, 4 HR, 13 BB, 26 K) for a reliable lefty arm, and Doug Miles is another great alternative. A very deep bullpen.

The Nicks have a dominant closer of their own: Ed Staitie (16 SV, 8.08 K/9, 2.76 ERA). However, they never really had clear #4 and #5 starters throughout the year, and beyond Staitie, the bullpen is pretty bad. Setup men Mike Watanabe and Alec Walker have ERA's of 5.88 and 6.08, respectively!

Overall: Huge advantage to the Jets, which is important given their starters' lack of stamina. Their team strategy has to be to try to wear down the Nicks' starters and go deep into their ragtag bullpen.

Bench

The Jets have a strong defensive backup catcher, Dave Lepine (.277/.314/.366, 63 games), who started for them last year, a great hitter who can play every infield position (and pretty well!) in Jonathan Bertrand (.277/.414/.511 in 137 AB), a middle infield defensive wizard in Carl Whitehead (.154/.211/.246, 38 games), a jackrabbit for pinch-running purposes in John Fox (.195/.286/.230, 8-2 SB-CS in 87 AB), and two very good defensive outfielders in Scott Jayne (.000/.000/.000, 25 games) and Lou Bowden (.346/.357/.500, 27 games). They have just about every bench need covered.

The Nicks' bench, by contrast, is mostly just a motley collection of not-very-good players. The one glaring exception is center fielder George Mullins, who started most of the year and hit .300/.367/.482. Gaudet played most of the year in left but moved over to center to make room for the rookie Willerton. It is unclear whether Stanford Rawson will stick with Willerton in the ACS or bring back Mullins to start.

Overall: Clear advantage to the Jets.

Managing

The Jets' manager is Raul Delcon, an offensively minded manager with 23 years' professional experience, mostly as a bench coach, and is known for a cautious approach toward base running. He tends to let his pitchers try to pitch their way out of trouble. He likes to take a role in teaching baseball techniques to his players, rather than leaving this task solely to the coaches. This is his first year as a manager at any level.

The Nicks' manager is the popular Stanford Rawson, a former pitching coach who is known for daring tactics, such as squeeze bunts in unexpected situations and an emphasis on the running game. He likes to play for platoon matchups and has been accused of over-managing, but he is beloved by his players and has a long record of winning clubs, having managed the reliably over-.500 Miners the previous three years, once to a pennant in 2010.

Overall: The advantage has to go to the more experienced Rawson over the technically-oriented, cautious Delcon.

Prediction: This should be an exciting series, but the Jets have home field advantage and the edge in a number of key categories. Both teams are hungry, as neither has tasted success for a while, but you have to give the edge to the winningest team of all time. Jets in 7.

08-13-2007, 06:43 PM	#101
Elendil Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: the dynasty forum Posts: 2,318	2012 ACS Previews On the last day of the season, the Denali Division was still technically up for grabs. If North Pole lost both games of their doubleheader at Whitehorse, while Mat-Su won both games of their doubleheader versus Sitka, then the two teams would tie for the lead. Juneau was out of the picture, having dropped too far in July and early August. Sitka had been eliminated the day before. In the afternoon games, Sitka tore up Mat-Su, 11-3, ending their chances, while North Pole fell to Whitehorse, 5-2. In the evening games, Sitka held off Mat-Su again, 5-3, and North Pole nailed down a 6-3 win. In the Seward Division, the Jets ran away with it, setting the team wins record in the AKL, and finishing 19 games above the second-place teams (the Bucs, Glacier Pilots, and Grizzlies all tied with 52-56 records). So the North Pole Nicks were returning to the Alaskan Championship Series for the first time since 2008, when they won it, while the Jets would see postseason action for the first time in their history. Team Comparisons Lineups C - Bob Russo (ERC) (.253/.338/.451) vs. Alan Sellick (NPN) (.290/.379/.560) - NICKS+ (Russo is awesome defensively, but the edge still goes to the Nicks) 1B - Stanton Ryan (ERC) (.312/.368/.421) vs. Edison Dwyer (NPN) (.288/.360/.577) - NICKS+ 2B - John Hauk (ERC) (.234/.346/.354) vs. John Abston (NPN) (.307/.380/.560) - NICKS++ (Hauk is better defensively, but still no contest) 3B - Luke York (ERC) (.291/.340/.474) vs. Dennis Roy (NPN) (.166/.282/.223) - JETS++ (York is battling a calf injury that could see him replaced with Jonathan Bertrand, see below) SS - Mike Gaston (ERC) (.275/.317/.408, 23-3 SB-CS) vs. Leonard Marshall (NPN) (.283/.337/.390) - JETS+ (Gaston is noticeably better defensively) LF - Phil Botfield (ERC) (.308/.383/.550) vs. Keith Willerton (NPN) (.257/.310/.339) - JETS++ CF - Jimmy Williams (ERC) (.287/.369/.590) vs. Dominique Gaudet (NPN) (.313/.411/.572) - NICKS+ (Williams has a pinched nerve in his neck that could affect his play) RF - John Horswill (ERC) (.285/.373/.450) vs. Bob Horton (NPN) (.325/.396/.586) - NICKS+ Injuries: RF Connor Poapst (NPN) (.267/.364/.483) has been out most of the year and will not make it back in time to play. Overall: Chugiak outscored North Pole 591-586 this year, but in an apparently weaker division. Also, much of that production came from their bench. North Pole has a significant team OPS advantage (.794 vs. .771) and has out-homered Chugiak 161-117. That's an amazing number of home runs. Advantage: NICKS. Rotations 1. Louis Mays (ERC) (162 IP, 8 HR, 48 BB, 110 K, 2.38 ERA) vs. Chip Becker (NPN) (181 IP, 12 HR, 40 BB, 110 K, 2.88 ERA) - EVEN (tough comparison, Becker gets an edge for endurance, but Mays has been more dominant over his career) 2. Eugene Pond (ERC) (142 IP, 13 HR, 33 BB, 105 K, 3.30 ERA) vs. Chance Major (NPN) (141 IP, 10 HR, 45 BB, 154 K, 3.01 ERA) - NICKS+ (another difficult comparison, but Major's amazing stuff is incomparable, and he also has a slight endurance advantage over Pond) 3. Monzaemon Mihashi (ERC) (138 IP, 10 HR, 36 BB, 74 K, 2.61 ERA) vs. Tom Pick (NPN) (165 IP, 21 HR, 44 BB, 57 K, 4.63 ERA) - JETS++ (Mihashi is a converted reliever but still adds much more value than Pick) Overall: Probably a slight advantage to the Jets. The series format favors the Nicks, because they don't have to use their horrid #4 and #5 starters. Bullpens Chugiak will have usual starters Ryan Dye (9-7, 2.77) and Charles Pretty (9-5, 4.45) in the 'pen, and can also rely on one of the most dominant closers in the game, Jason Hilton (28 SV, 6.7 K/9, 3.05 ERA). Besides Dye, they can go to Ronald Hawk (34 IP, 4 HR, 13 BB, 26 K) for a reliable lefty arm, and Doug Miles is another great alternative. A very deep bullpen. The Nicks have a dominant closer of their own: Ed Staitie (16 SV, 8.08 K/9, 2.76 ERA). However, they never really had clear #4 and #5 starters throughout the year, and beyond Staitie, the bullpen is pretty bad. Setup men Mike Watanabe and Alec Walker have ERA's of 5.88 and 6.08, respectively! Overall: Huge advantage to the Jets, which is important given their starters' lack of stamina. Their team strategy has to be to try to wear down the Nicks' starters and go deep into their ragtag bullpen. Bench The Jets have a strong defensive backup catcher, Dave Lepine (.277/.314/.366, 63 games), who started for them last year, a great hitter who can play every infield position (and pretty well!) in Jonathan Bertrand (.277/.414/.511 in 137 AB), a middle infield defensive wizard in Carl Whitehead (.154/.211/.246, 38 games), a jackrabbit for pinch-running purposes in John Fox (.195/.286/.230, 8-2 SB-CS in 87 AB), and two very good defensive outfielders in Scott Jayne (.000/.000/.000, 25 games) and Lou Bowden (.346/.357/.500, 27 games). They have just about every bench need covered. The Nicks' bench, by contrast, is mostly just a motley collection of not-very-good players. The one glaring exception is center fielder George Mullins, who started most of the year and hit .300/.367/.482. Gaudet played most of the year in left but moved over to center to make room for the rookie Willerton. It is unclear whether Stanford Rawson will stick with Willerton in the ACS or bring back Mullins to start. Overall: Clear advantage to the Jets. Managing The Jets' manager is Raul Delcon, an offensively minded manager with 23 years' professional experience, mostly as a bench coach, and is known for a cautious approach toward base running. He tends to let his pitchers try to pitch their way out of trouble. He likes to take a role in teaching baseball techniques to his players, rather than leaving this task solely to the coaches. This is his first year as a manager at any level. The Nicks' manager is the popular Stanford Rawson, a former pitching coach who is known for daring tactics, such as squeeze bunts in unexpected situations and an emphasis on the running game. He likes to play for platoon matchups and has been accused of over-managing, but he is beloved by his players and has a long record of winning clubs, having managed the reliably over-.500 Miners the previous three years, once to a pennant in 2010. Overall: The advantage has to go to the more experienced Rawson over the technically-oriented, cautious Delcon. Prediction: This should be an exciting series, but the Jets have home field advantage and the edge in a number of key categories. Both teams are hungry, as neither has tasted success for a while, but you have to give the edge to the winningest team of all time. Jets in 7. Last edited by Elendil; 08-28-2007 at 08:01 PM.