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Burgandy · 07-25-2007, 02:18 PM

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/070622.html

"A study of baseball HFA from 1901 to 2002 published in the Baseball Research Journal found "the average seasonal difference between a team's home winning percentage and its road winning percentage was .082." (In other words, an average team's home record is .541 and its away record is .459.)"

Over the average 162 game season, home-field advantage accounts for approximately 6.6 wins above the average 81-81 record.

If you try breaking that sample size down to a measly 7 games, you're talking about less than a 0.3 win difference from the average 3.5-3.5 record. I don't think that advantage is something you're going to see with the naked eye without looking at a little bit larger history.

"As baseball-stat guru Bill James has pointed out, an undefeated team has an HFA of zip." --this is the way I look at it.

Any historical stats that show a greater W/L% for the home team in the playoffs also include the fact that before the last 3 years, the team that earned home-field had a better record overall, and may well have just been a superior team, talent-wise. In other words, it's usually the better teams that have won the HFA in the playoffs. So of course they're should have a better record.. at home AND on the road.

IMO, the HFA in baseball doesn't come from crowd noise/size, etc. It comes from playing 81 games in one place and knowing the ballpark, how the ball bounces in the corners, the best places to pick up the ball off the bat, etc, etc. It's not like football where offenses need to be able to hear the snap count and a lot of crowd noise can create penalties or slow their jumps. This is ONLY my opinion.

07-25-2007, 02:18 PM	#7
Burgandy Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 85	http://www.straightdope.com/columns/070622.html "A study of baseball HFA from 1901 to 2002 published in the Baseball Research Journal found "the average seasonal difference between a team's home winning percentage and its road winning percentage was .082." (In other words, an average team's home record is .541 and its away record is .459.)" Over the average 162 game season, home-field advantage accounts for approximately 6.6 wins above the average 81-81 record. If you try breaking that sample size down to a measly 7 games, you're talking about less than a 0.3 win difference from the average 3.5-3.5 record. I don't think that advantage is something you're going to see with the naked eye without looking at a little bit larger history. "As baseball-stat guru Bill James has pointed out, an undefeated team has an HFA of zip." --this is the way I look at it. Any historical stats that show a greater W/L% for the home team in the playoffs also include the fact that before the last 3 years, the team that earned home-field had a better record overall, and may well have just been a superior team, talent-wise. In other words, it's usually the better teams that have won the HFA in the playoffs. So of course they're should have a better record.. at home AND on the road. IMO, the HFA in baseball doesn't come from crowd noise/size, etc. It comes from playing 81 games in one place and knowing the ballpark, how the ball bounces in the corners, the best places to pick up the ball off the bat, etc, etc. It's not like football where offenses need to be able to hear the snap count and a lot of crowd noise can create penalties or slow their jumps. This is ONLY my opinion.