[Elendil]

2011 All-Star Break

Since last year, the All-Star Game has occurred about two-thirds of the way through the season, near the end of July. By this time the game features the true stars of the season, because the "large sample size" of games has weeded out the one-month wonders.

Standings

Seward Division 													
Team				W	L	PCT	GB	Pyt.Rec	Diff
Eagle River-Chugiak Jets	42	33	0.560	-	42-33	0
Kodiak Grizzlies		39	30	0.565	-	37-32	2							
Anchorage (ANC) Bucs		38	34	0.528	2.5	36-36	2							
Bethel Mushers			37	35	0.514	3.5	36-36	1							
Anchorage (AGP) Glacier Pilots	31	39	0.443	8.5	32-38	-1
Peninsula Oilers		31	42	0.425	10	35-38	-4							
Denali Division 													
Team				W	L	PCT	GB	Pyt.Rec	Diff							
Mat-Su Miners			39	34	0.534	-	39-34	0							
Juneau Senators			38	35	0.521	1	35-38	3							
Sitka Sentinels			37	36	0.507	2	35-38	2							
Whitehorse Yukoners		36	35	0.507	2	34-37	2							
North Pole Nicks		35	37	0.486	3.5	43-29	-8							
Fairbanks Goldpanners		31	44	0.413	9	31-44	0

What's particularly shocking about these standings are three things:

1) Eagle River-Chugiak's position. In fact, in early July, they had a comfortable lead atop the Seward, but a six-game losing streak allowed the Grizzlies and Bucs to get into it. The Jets had made the sole blockbuster trade of the season, dealing 4.5* SP prospect Harvey Romanov, OF Doug Beard (.198/.327/.321: remember, they had a glut of outfielders), SP John Earle (5-2, .304), SP Jack Skinner (4-2, 3.80), and backup IF Kevin West (.182/.182/.273) to the rebuilding Sentinels for 26-year-old SP Ryan Dye (6-3, 3.23). It was a case of giving up a lot to get a lot, for both sides. Dye was emerging as one of the premier young pitchers of the league, and Beard, Earle, Skinner, and West filled a number of little holes for Sitka - although none of them were likely to be a star. Romanov was the real pickup for Sitka, but it was doubtful whether he would ever match Dye's potential. After the trade, though, the Jets were hit with a number of serious injuries, losing SS Mike Gaston for the rest of the season and watching 1B Marc Keddy, 3B Jim Noel, and Dye himself deal with nagging ailments. Jet manager Leith Navarro was fast acquiring legendary status for what he had done with the team the past two years.

2) The closeness of the Denali Division. The Miners were under-performing, and the Senators, Yukoners, and Sentinels were all over-performing. These were all rebuilding teams - particularly Sitka. They had no business being in a pennant race. Mat-Su was doing it all offensively, with a pitching staff that just couldn't get the job done. Will Blain was having control problems and did not make the All-Star team with his 4.50 ERA. Don Thomas had only come back recently from an injury suffered last year. John Dewitt's strikeouts were way down, and it was clear that he was no longer the player that he had been. The bigger picture here is that 9 teams are still very much in the pennant chase in both divisions, with only the Glacier Pilots, Oilers, and Goldpanners truly in the cellar.

3. The strange case of the North Pole Nicks. After looking like a dynasty in the making two years ago, the team had been pipped last year by Mat-Su and had now taken a nosedive. Nevertheless, they actually had the best Pythagorean record in the entire league! The problem was that they were playing eight games under their expected record. They were just 5-13 in one-run games. One of the problems was the bullpen, symbolized by closer Ed Staitie, who led the team in losses with 7 (5.57 ERA). He hadn't pitched that badly really, but a .400 BABIP didn't help. Basically, the team had gotten bad bounces right when it really hurt - the end of close games.

Forecasting the Stretch Run

Seward Division

Eagle River-Chugiak Jets: The team had turned things around offensively, leading the league in homeruns at the break (91 in 75 G). However, their OBP was a bit below league average, and they had only a narrow lead in runs over the Bucs in their division. Their pitching was above-average but the defense was not. A .288 BABIP was three points higher than league average. However, the defense was successful in preventing errors, with a fielding percentage of .975, essentially tied with North Pole for the league lead. However, they had a tough schedule down the stretch with four games each against Mat-Su and North Pole, six games against Kodiak, six games against the Bucs, and four games against Bethel. Everything depends on getting their key players healthy.

Kodiak Grizzlies - This is a team that thrives on pitching. Their team OPS is 11 points below league average, but they have the best team ERA in the league (3.68). Part of this is really defense, as they lead the league in BABIP (.272). Second baseman Doug Griffin, an All-Star, and catcher Tim Rowsell, also an All-Star, are their chief defensive stars. Tom Robbins has failed to make the All-Star team for the first time in his career but may explode at any time. The team has a relatively weak schedule down the stretch, as they have already played all their games against Mat-Su and North Pole but will have to face the surging Bucs nine more times. The biggest obstacle for them will be exhaustion, as they will play more games down the stretch (39) than any other team.

Anchorage Bucs - The team is above average offensively and below average defensively. Their only key injury right now is to slumping second baseman Jonathan Bertrand. He could return for the last week of the season. Right now they are getting good production from OF Terry Kuhn (.301/.387/.502), 3B Nick Bedford (.269/.341/.502), CF Bryce Payne (.312/.370/.459), and SS Ken Swerdlow (.274/.383/.378). In limited playing time, OF George Poor has put up some eye-popping numbers: .324/.412/.657, including 8 HR in 102 AB. The rotation is mostly composed of no-names, led by Ken Dickson (7-5, 3.44). Moderate schedule down the stretch, with 9 against Kodiak, 6 against Chugiak, 7 against Bethel, and none left against either the Miners or Nicks.

Bethel Mushers - At 3.5 back, they are very much in this still, but have fallen to 4th after sitting in 2nd or 3rd much of the season. The team can have trouble generating offense, but enjoys reasonably good pitching (3.88 team ERA). Their staff leads the league in fewest HR's given up (43 in 72 G) but is second-worst in walks allowed (301 in 638 IP). The rotation is much better than the bullpen. Closer James Marshall is 0-6, 4.15. Number one starter Jack Hatt is an All-Star - for the fourth time - but is also showing his age, K'ing only 53 hitters in 108 innings pitched (133 in 168 for ANC last year). Their schedule the rest of the way is pretty much average - done with Mat-Su, two more against North Pole.

Prediction: Kodiak to win.

Denali Division

Mat-Su Miners: Still the defending champions and expected to be a tough opponent the rest of the way. Chief offensive producers: CF Gary Trudel (.339/.432/.650, league leader in VORP), OF Rob Corley (.321/.422/.556), OF Dave Langille (.314/.393/.574), 3B Sherman Ferris (.303/.374/.420), 2B Rene Fortier (.257/.356/.443), and 39-year-old catcher Pierre-Alexandre Langlois (.305/.405/.484). Even with FA pickup Don Goodyear having a down year (.247/.359/.428), this is a team that could pound their opponents into oblivion at any time. Pitching and defense are their Achilles' heel (league-worst 4.47 ERA). They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, including 9 more against doormats Fairbanks and 4 apiece left against the Pilots & Oilers.

Juneau Senators: Clawing their way back into the thick of things, the Senators are doing it even with CF Olivier Theriault, 3B Henry Willerton, and 2B Ralph Collette all going on the DL recently. All will be back within the next week. The Senators have always stressed pitching and defense, and this year's team is no exception. With Mays gone, they have no superstars, but All-Stars Don Taggart (10-4, 3.11) and Scott Northeast (4-4, 3.48) are certainly getting the job done. 21-year-old rookie Anthony Sonier, signed to a minor league contract back in January after being released by North Pole, has posted a 2.06 ERA in his first five starts. Offensively, they have been dependent on Wynn Dunsmore (.329/.430/.573), who was injured for the first month of the season. They have a tough schedule in store, with 5 left against Mat-Su and North Pole, 9 against Sitka, and 6 against Whitehorse.

Sitka Sentinels: God only knows how the Sentinels wound up just 2 games back at this point in the season. Management was clearly in rebuilding mode with the Dye deal. They've somehow managed a fair bit of offense (351 R in 73 G) with a team OPS 8 points below league average (.714). Their team ERA is second worst in the league (4.41). However, their actual runs allowed aren't quite so bad (372), even though they're only average in fielding percentage (.970). They have some youngsters who may be breaking out this season, including 19-year-old shortstop phenom Jack Hussey (.355/.427/.408) and sophomore second baseman Ralph Hearn (.321/.365/.530). Rookie starting pitcher Al Simmons is 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA. Their schedule the rest of the way is about average, with 4 left against the Pilots and Bucs but also 9 left with the Senators and 6 with the Nicks.

Whitehorse Yukoners: The Yukoners have actually been the surprise team in the Denali most of the season, having spent the whole year over .500 and within sight of Mat-Su. Recently, however, they have been doing poorly, squandering an opportunity to overtake the Miners. Like the Sentinels, they're a young team with the element of surprise on their side. Their offense is decidedly subpar - tied with Juneau for last in their division in runs scored (325). They actually have a better team ERA than Juneau (3.72 compared to 3.75), although it's dependent on their good defense (.277 BABIP). Some of their young stars include RF Kisei Suto (.323/.407/.460), CF John Dugles (.316/.381/.436), and SS Walt Duff (.303/.339/.398). The pitching staff is decidedly older, anchored by 31-year-old John Lynn (10-2, 2.44), who has spent his entire career with this franchise. There's no doubt that the remote community of Whitehorse, Yukon is totally behind their new team as they try to make history. Their schedule will be pretty tough (4 against Bethel, 4 against Chugiak, 6 against Juneau, 4 against Kodiak, 6 against North Pole, 6 against Sitka).

North Pole Nicks: According to Pythagorean expectations, they should be winning the division handily. Fan interest remains high in their hometown, and they remain an exciting team to watch, coming second (after Mat-Su) in team OBP (.345) and third (after Mat-Su and Chugiak) in slugging percentage (.426). Their pitching is also good, though (3.76 ERA). They lead their division - by a wide margin - in fewest runs allowed. The core of the rotation remains intact from last year, with Chip Becker (7-6, 3.77), Chance Major (4-5, 3.76), Tom Pick (7-3, 3.90), and Mike Rancourt (6-6, 2.78) all performing reliably well. The last three were on the championship team too. Closer Ed Staitie, as mentioned, has been unlucky. On offense, Connor Poapst has exploded since coming over from Sitka, hitting .338/.434/.600. Of course, he's now 37, so it's anyone's guess whether his knees and reflexes will hold up for the duration. The team has lost centerfielder George Mullins (.347/.406/.542) for the entire season, and it's unlikely that he will ever be the same player again. He's just 24. Their schedule is about average, as they will have an opportunity to get their licks in against all the contenders in their own division (6 apiece, 5 against Juneau), but will also get 1 more against Peninsula, 4 against the Pilots, and 2 more against Fairbanks.

Prediction: Mat-Su's schedule gives them the edge to hold on, I think.

All-Star Game

The All-Star game was held at Coral Seymour Memorial Ballpark in Peninsula this year and drew a sellout crowd. The hometown Seward Division jumped out to an early lead in the first, plating four on Tom Pick. One particularly fraught moment was when Glacier Pilot catcher Vincent Leroux hit a two-run home run off his former teammate Pick. It was 9-2 Sewards after six and looked like a rout, but then the Denali Division plated a whopping 9 runs in the top of the 7th, taking an 11-9 lead. The Seward Division answered right back with four runs in the bottom half. The crowd was loving it, even cheering the visitors from the other division when they took the lead right back, 14-13. It remained 14-13 in the bottom of the ninth, when Adam Joly tied it up on a bases-loaded single. Nathan Bedford then strode to the plate against Mike Rancourt with the score 14 all and the bases loaded.

Yes, believe it or not, he sent the fans home with a walkoff grand slam.

The Seward Division beat the Denali Division 18-14 in a slugfest with five errors - and Bedford's shot made Sportscenter that night.

Box score:

Game ID: 14276 - Sunday, July 24th, 2011 - Game Log


Sunday, July 24th, 2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Denali Division All-Stars 0 2 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 14 13 2
Seward Division All-Stars 4 0 0 1 3 1 4 0 5 18 23 3


Denali Division AB R H RBI BB K LOB AVG HR RBI
J. Hussey SS 4 1 1 0 2 1 2 .355 1 15
G. Johnson 1B 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 .307 5 32
c-L. Trudel PH, RF 3 1 1 1 0 0 2 .351 5 41
P. Langlois C 5 1 1 2 0 2 0 .305 10 44
G. Trudel CF 5 2 2 0 0 2 0 .339 22 62
W. Dunsmore RF 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 .329 9 32
d-C. Poapst PH 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 .338 13 49
e-A. Sellick 1B 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 .382 2 13
S. Ferris 3B 4 2 4 3 1 0 0 .303 3 28
R. Corley LF 5 1 0 1 0 1 7 .321 14 50
S. Starr 2B 4 2 2 4 1 0 0 .274 12 46
T. Pick P 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .205 0 2
J. Lynn P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .146 0 5
a-R. Hearn PH 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .321 13 43
J. Dewitt P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .057 0 2
A. Simmons P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .146 0 3
b-E. Dwyer PH 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .267 11 41
T. Tremblay P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .118 0 0
A. Walker P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
M. Rancourt P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .172 0 0
Totals 40 14 13 12 7 7 15

a - R. Hearn pinch hit for J. Lynn in the 5th
b - E. Dwyer pinch hit for A. Simmons in the 7th
c - L. Trudel pinch hit for G. Johnson in the 7th
d - C. Poapst pinch hit for W. Dunsmore in the 7th
e - A. Sellick substituted for C. Poapst in the 7th

BATTING
Doubles: S. Starr (10, 2nd Inning off S. Hill, 2 on, 2 outs) S. Ferris (19, 4th Inning off J. Hatt, 0 on, 2 outs)
Home Runs: S. Ferris (3, 8th Inning off C. Pretty, 2 on, 1 out)
Total Bases: G. Trudel 2, P. Langlois, S. Starr 3, J. Hussey, S. Ferris 8, L. Trudel, C. Poapst, A. Sellick
2-out RBI: S. Starr
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: , R. Corley 2, J. Hussey, T. Pick, L. Trudel
GIDP: G. Johnson, L. Trudel
Sac Bunt: J. Hussey
Team LOB: 8

BASERUNNING
SB: S. Starr (16), W. Dunsmore (4)
CS: P. Langlois (1)

FIELDING
Errors: J. Hussey , S. Ferris
Double Plays: 1 (Hussey-Starr-Johnson)


Seward Division AB R H RBI BB K LOB AVG HR RBI
B. Payne CF 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 .312 8 28
C. Pretty P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .152 0 2
T. Rowsell C 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 .279 1 32
T. Lambert 2B 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 .286 2 30
J. Hatt P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .097 0 3
J. Hilton P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
c-J. Hauk PH, 2B 3 1 1 2 1 0 1 .286 6 34
A. Joly 1B 5 2 2 2 0 0 4 .342 12 45
T. Kuhn RF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .301 7 41
M. Gagnon P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .129 0 1
b-N. Bedford PH, 1B, 3B 5 2 4 4 0 0 1 .269 19 61
L. Drover LF 5 3 4 2 0 0 1 .362 5 30
V. Leroux C 4 1 2 3 1 0 3 .243 8 25
R. Dye P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .188 1 4
S. Wilkinson SS 5 2 1 1 0 1 3 .278 7 40
D. Griffin 3B, 2B 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 .296 3 25
L. Mays P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .133 0 3
D. Gould P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .214 0 1
L. Morris P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .256 0 1
J. Adams P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .222 0 3
d-J. Williams PH, CF 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 .276 22 51
S. Hill P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .091 0 0
a-P. Botfield PH, RF 5 3 3 2 0 0 1 .341 13 39
Totals 45 18 23 17 2 1 18

a - P. Botfield pinch hit for S. Hill in the 2nd
b - N. Bedford pinch hit for M. Gagnon in the 3rd
c - J. Hauk pinch hit for J. Hilton in the 5th
d - J. Williams pinch hit for J. Adams in the 7th

BATTING
Doubles: L. Drover 3 (20, 1st Inning off T. Pick, 0 on, 2 outs; 3rd Inning off T. Pick, 1 on, 2 outs; 5th Inning off J. Dewitt, 2 on, 1 out) B. Payne (13, 6th Inning off A. Simmons, 0 on, 0 outs) P. Botfield (22, 9th Inning off M. Rancourt, 0 on, 0 outs) J. Hauk (20, 7th Inning off T. Tremblay, 2 on, 2 outs)
Home Runs: S. Wilkinson (7, 4th Inning off J. Lynn, 0 on, 0 outs) V. Leroux (8, 1st Inning off T. Pick, 1 on, 2 outs) P. Botfield (13, 6th Inning off A. Simmons, 0 on, 0 outs) N. Bedford (19, 9th Inning off M. Rancourt, 3 on, 0 outs)
Total Bases: A. Joly 2, S. Wilkinson 4, L. Drover 7, B. Payne 4, D. Griffin, T. Lambert, T. Rowsell, V. Leroux 5, P. Botfield 7, N. Bedford 7, J. Hauk 2
2-out RBI: V. Leroux, P. Botfield, J. Hauk
Runners left in scoring position, 2 outs: A. Joly, D. Griffin, V. Leroux, N. Bedford, J. Williams
GIDP: P. Botfield
Sac Bunt: T. Lambert
Sac Fly: A. Joly, T. Kuhn
Team LOB: 7

BASERUNNING
SB: L. Drover (6)

FIELDING
Errors: S. Wilkinson , V. Leroux , P. Botfield
Double Plays: 2 (Wilkinson-Griffin-Joly, Wilkinson-Hauk-Joly)

Denali Division IP H R ER BB K HR PI PS ERA
T. Pick 3.0 7 4 1 0 0 1 39 28 3.90
J. Lynn 1.0 1 1 1 0 0 1 10 9 2.44
J. Dewitt 1.0 4 3 3 0 0 0 23 16 3.50
A. Simmons 1.0 2 1 1 0 0 1 12 7 3.18
T. Tremblay BS (0) 0.2 4 4 0 0 0 0 24 16 3.18
A. Walker 1.0 1 0 0 1 1 0 27 16 2.06
M. Rancourt L (6-6)BS (0) 0.1 4 5 5 1 0 1 24 12 2.78

PITCHING
Game Score: T. Pick 33
Batters Faced: T. Pick 16, J. Lynn 4, J. Dewitt 7, A. Simmons 5, T. Tremblay 7, A. Walker 5, M. Rancourt 6
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: T. Pick 4-4, J. Lynn 2-1, J. Dewitt 3-0, A. Simmons 1-2, T. Tremblay 2-0, A. Walker 1-1, M. Rancourt 1-0
Pitches - Strikes: T. Pick 39-28, J. Lynn 10-9, J. Dewitt 23-16, A. Simmons 12-7, T. Tremblay 24-16, A. Walker 27-16, M. Rancourt 24-12
Inherited Runners - Scored: A. Walker 1-0, M. Rancourt 2-0


Seward Division IP H R ER BB K HR PI PS ERA
S. Hill 2.0 2 2 2 1 0 0 31 16 2.36
M. Gagnon 1.0 0 0 0 0 3 0 15 11 2.61
J. Hatt 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 0 14 9 2.66
J. Hilton H (0) 1.0 0 0 0 1 0 0 11 5 2.45
L. Mays 1.0 1 0 0 1 1 0 17 10 2.99
D. Gould 0.0 1 4 4 3 0 0 14 2 3.26
L. Morris 0.1 4 5 3 1 0 0 24 15 3.48
J. Adams 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 1.69
C. Pretty BS (0) 1.0 3 3 3 0 2 1 23 16 3.88
R. Dye W (6-4) 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 3.24

PITCHING
Game Score: S. Hill 39
Batters Faced: S. Hill 9, M. Gagnon 3, J. Hatt 4, J. Hilton 4, L. Mays 5, D. Gould 4, L. Morris 6, J. Adams 4, C. Pretty 6, R. Dye 3
Ground Outs - Fly Outs: S. Hill 5-1, M. Gagnon 0-0, J. Hatt 1-1, J. Hilton 2-0, L. Mays 1-1, D. Gould 0-0, L. Morris 1-0, J. Adams 1-2, C. Pretty 0-1, R. Dye 1-1
Pitches - Strikes: S. Hill 31-16, M. Gagnon 15-11, J. Hatt 14-9, J. Hilton 11-5, L. Mays 17-10, D. Gould 14-2, L. Morris 24-15, J. Adams 8-4, C. Pretty 23-16, R. Dye 5-4
Inherited Runners - Scored: L. Morris 3-3, J. Adams 1-1
WP: J. Hilton, D. Gould, J. Adams

GAME NOTES
Player of the Game: N. Bedford
Ballpark: Coral Seymour Memorial Ballpark
Weather: Clear skies (47 degrees), wind blowing in from center at 8 mph
Start Time: 7:05 pm
Time: 3:59
Attendance: 2133