[Elendil]

2010 Alaskan Championship Series Preview

If history is any guide, this series should be a clash of titans. To date, the Alaskan champion has always been the team with the lower regular season ERA going into the series ("defense wins championships" holds true, it seems). Peninsula has the best ERA of any team ever: 3.03. On the other hand, the team with the better regular-season winning percentage has won the crown each of the last two years, and Mat-Su has the best winning percentage of any team ever: .648.

Nevertheless, the popular assumption remains that the Denali Division is superior to the Seward, an assumption bolstered by Eagle River-Chugiak's near-unseating of Peninsula down the stretch. During the regular season, Peninsula's record against Mat-Su was 4-4, and against the rest of the Denali Division was 24-16. Mat-Su was 26-14 against the rest of the Seward Division. Thus, the divisional differential was perhaps no longer as strong as many assumed.

When it came to Pythagorean record, both teams had played four games above their heads. In fact, North Pole had played three games below theirs, with an expected record of 69-39 given their run differential. So Mat-Su was perhaps actually a bit weaker than their record indicated, although so was Peninsula.

Lineup Comparison

C - Pierre-Alexandre Langlois (MSM) (.334/.420/.528) vs Ryan Ward (PEN) (.236/.289/.345) - MINERS++

1B - Larry Plummer (MSM) (.400/.400/.600 in 5 AB! Starter in the second half after John Brown's trade, Jeffrey Downey, was benched after a horrible season) vs. Zander Sabin (PEN) (.213/.278/.344) EVEN

2B - Rene Fortier (MSM) (.321/.409/.543) vs. Tommy Lambert (PEN) (.341/.419/.465) - EVEN

3B - Sherman Ferris (MSM) (.273/.357/.382) vs. Kevin West (PEN) (.188/.227/.271) - MINERS++

SS - Henry Owens (MSM) (.210/.245/.271) vs. Terence Ostrom (PEN) (.278/.327/.385) - OILERS++

LF - Rob Corley (MSM) (.294/.406/.471) vs. Wade Merz (.283/.331/.360) - MINERS++

CF - Greg Trudel (MSM) (.351/.420/.630) vs. Nelson Cormack (PEN) (.238/.307/.312) - MINERS++

RF - Dave Langille (MSM) (.302/.377/.496) vs. Lloyd Flannery (PEN) (.284/.347/.462) - MINERS+

The Oilers really have only one offensive threat: Tommy Lambert. While the Miners have gaping holes at first and short, they otherwise pretty well stacked. Significant advantage to the Miners on hitting.

Rotation Comparisons

1. Will Blain (MSM) (9-4, 2.17) vs. Gary Tufts (PEN) (8-11, 3.28) - MINERS+
2. John Dewitt (MSM) (8-2, 3.62) vs. Bryan Kendall (PEN) (10-7, 3.78) - EVEN
3. Thierry Tremblay (MSM) (11-4, 3.58) vs. Ron Quinton (PEN) (10-5, 2.41) - OILERS+

The Oilers had foolishly started Ron Quinton in the last game of the season, and therefore he would be unavailable for Games 1 & 2. While Tufts and Kendall were actually fourth and fifth on the team in ERA, they had better DIPS stats than Geldart (4-7, 2.67) and Phillips (9-6, 2.55) and a lot more experience, so they would be starters in this series.

Remember Will Blain? He was a hero for Mat-Su in the 2007 Series, but had been badly injured in 2008. After two partial seasons, he had finally come back for a full season in 2010 and performed spectacularly. Unbelievably, he's still just 24 years old.

The Oilers probably have a slight edge in the starting pitching, but it's basically even. Unfortunately, their depth won't count for much in the postseason.

Bench Comparisons

The Oilers had a couple of bench players contribute nicely this season: outfielder Ken Wells (7 HR, 123 AB) and backup catcher Pat Upton (10 HR, 175 AB). First baseman Tanner Bourque is also a weapon: he hit .322/.419/.583 last year and was an All-Star, but he rode the pine this year and hit just .204/.339/.398.

The Miners have a pretty awful-hitting bench, with only shortstop Jim Morse, who played a lot at both SS and 1B, contributing positively. He hit .267/.316/.457.

Advantage: Oilers.

Bullpen Comparisons

The Miners' closer, Bryant Brenton, put up a below-average 4.06 ERA this year, but that's misleading, because his DIPS stats were great: 4 HR, 5 BB, 30 K in 38 IP. Lefthanded setup man Waylon Ellsworth (1.73 ERA, 4 HR, 15 BB, 30 K in 36 IP) and righthanded setup man John Oram (3.38 ERA, 5 HR, 26 BB, 33 K in 48 IP) were also pretty reliable.

Peninsula relied on John Adams (1.72 ERA, 5 HR, 8 BB, 34 K in 47 IP) to close out games, no edge to either team there. Their setup men were Chris Dickey (3.78 ERA, 2 HR, 12 BB, 20 K in 33 IP) and Doug Miles (2.78 ERA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 31 K in 32 IP), both righthanders. They could also rely on Geldart and Phillips out of the pen, but they were righthanders too. Overall, the Oilers' bullpen looks better, but the lack of a lefthanded option might hurt them.

Advantage: EVEN.

Managerial Comparisons

Simon Aube manages Peninsula; he's 62 years old and 35 year veteran of coaching. He's managed Peninsula ever since the beginning, and his contract is up for renewal. He favors hitting over pitching but stresses defense over offense. He's conservative with the squeeze play.

Mat-Su's manager is Stanford Rawson, 52 years old and a 22-year veteran. He's managed the Miners each of the last two years and is widely credited for the club's resurgence. He favors hitting over pitching and is aggressive with the squeeze play.

Advantage: EVEN

Conclusion

The short series takes away much of Peninsula's pitching advantage over Mat-Su. I don't think they have the offense to produce wins night in and night out. This should be a close series, possibly going seven, but I see the Miners taking it and firmly establishing the first true dynasty in the league's short history.