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injury log · 06-14-2007, 01:55 PM

Following up on thbroman's suggestion above, I did a quick 'back of the envelope' calculation using Zeyes's data. Assuming streaks don't really exist in real life (a player's at bats are independent events), but streaks do exist in OOTP (the fire thing), then if 25% of OOTP players getting to 5 at bats are streaking, they'd only need a 60 point boost in their batting average to explain the discrepancy in Zeyes's numbers. That's assuming my math is ok; I had to make quite a few assumptions. In any event, I've read elsewhere that the fire/streak thing in OOTP does affect performance, and I'd guess it explains at least some of the 5-hit frequency. It would be interesting to do a correlation study of streaks in OOTP and real life to see if there's more volatility in OOTP performance.

06-14-2007, 01:55 PM	#15
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	Following up on thbroman's suggestion above, I did a quick 'back of the envelope' calculation using Zeyes's data. Assuming streaks don't really exist in real life (a player's at bats are independent events), but streaks do exist in OOTP (the fire thing), then if 25% of OOTP players getting to 5 at bats are streaking, they'd only need a 60 point boost in their batting average to explain the discrepancy in Zeyes's numbers. That's assuming my math is ok; I had to make quite a few assumptions. In any event, I've read elsewhere that the fire/streak thing in OOTP does affect performance, and I'd guess it explains at least some of the 5-hit frequency. It would be interesting to do a correlation study of streaks in OOTP and real life to see if there's more volatility in OOTP performance. Last edited by injury log; 06-14-2007 at 01:58 PM.